
A scorching start ignites debate: Should the Marlins gamble on Owen Caissie, mirroring baseball's risky trend of early, massive contract extensions?
MIAMI -- Buy now or pay later?
That seems to be the trend in Major League Baseball. The required sample size for convincing front offices of whether or not a young player is the franchise cornerstone worthy of a longterm extension has become microscopic.
There is a growing number of players signing longterm extensions either early into their young careers or before they even start. This trend has not shown signs of stopping anytime soon, as those who have yet to be signed are leading to the clamoring from the fan bases to make it so.
In the case of the Miami Marlins, the logical candidate is Owen Caissie. The 23-year-old Canadien rookie hit a solo home run during a 10-2 loss against the New York Yankees on Friday to add to his torrid start, batting .348 with a 1.081 OPS and nine RBI in seven games.
The Marlins traded Edward Cabrera to the Chicago Cubs for Caissie over the offseason, knowing he would instantly be their top hitting prospect. He proved to be worthy of the hype in the World Baseball Classic when he led Canada in RBI, and his bat played a significant role in the Marlins’ sixth 5-1 start in franchise history.
The tricky situation in terms of whether or not the Marlins should rush to lock him down for the long term is 12 total games of highly competitive ball is a larger sample size than what other teams are going off of in their respective decisions to extend prospects. The Pittsburgh Pirates called up 19-year-old phenom Konnor Griffin for the home opener on Friday, just as he is working on finalizing a nine-year, $140 million extension, per ESPN’s Buster Olney.
That potential deal comes after the Seattle Mariners signed their shortstop prospect, 20-year-old Colt Emerson, to an eight-year, $95 million extension while he is still in the minor leagues. It is the largest contract in MLB history for a player who has yet to make his big-league debut.
High Reward
The best the Marlins could hope for is if Caissie (or whomever gets extended) turns out like Jackson Chourio and Corbin Carroll.
Chourio, a No. 2 overall prospect in 2024, signed an eight-year, $82 million deal before his MLB debut, a record at the time. Chourio, now 22 years old, has hit 42 home runs, 157 RBI, slashed .272/.317/.463 and stolen 43 bases split evenly between his two seasons. The Milwaukee Brewers have been among the best teams in NL during his young career.
Carroll, having only played 32 games in the big leagues in 2022, signed an eight-year $111 million extension with the Arizona Diamondbacks in March leading up to the 2023 season. Like the many aforementioned deals, Carroll’s deal set a record for a player with under 100 days of service time. The decision paid off, as he slashed .285/.362/.506 with 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases while leading the Diamondbacks to their second ever National League pennant.
High Risk
The Boston Red Sox signed many of their top young prospects to eight-year extensions in recent years, ranging from $50 million for Ceddanne Rafaela to $60M for Kristian Campbell to $130 million for Roman Anthony.
Rafaela finished his rookie season batting .246 with a .664 OPS, 15 home runs, 75 RBI and 19 stolen bases in 152 games. For the Red Sox, Rafaela is at a value, for he is not relied upon to be the star that leads a team with one of the highest payrolls.
Campbell signed his deal on April 5, 2025, after batting .423 (11-for-26) with two home runs and five RBI -- not that different from what Caissie is doing now. If the Marlins gave him the Campbell deal, it would be a bargain today.
Campbell finished his rookie season slashing .223/.319/.345 with six homers and 21 RBI in 67 games. He did not make the team out of spring training and is starting this season in Triple-A.
Anthony actually showed promise before getting his extension, having slashed .292/.396/.463 in 71 games into his big league career. He has started this season 6-for-26 while the Red Sox lost five of their first seven games.
Is Signing Worth It?
As a big-market team, the Red Sox can absorb all three of these deals. The Marlins, in the middle of their third rebuild project since the opening of loanDepot Park, can’t afford for such a deal not paying off.
However, they may not have a choice. It is clear that these early extensions are going to be more expensive as we creep towards the 2030s. And if the Pirates, who are just as cheap as the Marlins, are striking such deals, what excuse does Miami’s front office have?
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