Chris Paddack’s Statcast profile explains why the Miami Marlins acquired him as a buy-low rotation arm before Spring Training.
The Miami Marlins did not acquire Chris Paddack just before Spring Training because he looked like a finished product.
They acquired him because his Statcast profile still shows enough traits to make him an intriguing buy-low arm for a rotation that needed innings, experience, and another veteran option.
On the surface, Paddack’s 2025 numbers do not jump off the page in a good way. He posted a 5.35 ERA over 158 innings, with opponents hitting .274 against him and producing a .488 slugging percentage.
His expected numbers were not much kinder, as his 5.03 xERA and .345 xwOBA suggest the contact quality against him remained a real issue.
Hitters barreled him up at a 10.2% clip and produced a 45.6% hard-hit rate, both worse than league average.
Still, the Marlins likely saw something more useful underneath those results.
Paddack continues to do one thing well that every staff member values: throw strikes and avoid walks.
His 5.5% walk rate in 2025 ranked well above average, and his 31.7% chase rate shows hitters still expand the zone against him. Even if he is no longer a high-whiff arm, he still forces plenty of uncomfortable swings and limits free passes.
For a team trying to stabilize the back end of its rotation, that matters.
There is also the matter of durability. Paddack threw 158 innings in 2025, something the Marlins needed after dealing with injury uncertainty throughout their staff.
Miami did not need another project that might only provide flashes. It needed someone who could take the ball regularly.
His arsenal also gives the Marlins something to work with. Paddack still features a six-pitch mix, led by a 43.2 percent four-seam fastball and a 23.5 percent changeup, with a cutter and curveball giving him more sequencing options.
His fastball actually posted a positive run value in 2025, suggesting at least one piece of the profile still played.
That is likely the best Miami made. The Marlins acquired Paddack because they saw a veteran starter with command, chase ability, workload value, and enough pitch-mix flexibility to potentially unlock more with the right adjustments.
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