Tarik Skubal’s elbow surgery could slash his record-breaking price tag, offering David Stearns a high-stakes opening to overhaul New York’s rotation despite a dismal start to 2026.
We have now reached May, meaning there is a sufficient sample size to get an idea of each club’s outlook for the season. Despite lofty expectations heading into the season, the New York Mets’ outlook is one of the bleakest in baseball.
Sitting in last place in the National League East with a 13-22 record as of Wednesday morning, the Mets have been baseball's biggest disappointment. They may already be in a huge hole, being 11.5 games back from the division-leading Atlanta Braves, but there is still plenty of baseball left ot be played in 2026.
While President of Baseball Operations David Stearns is searching for emergency fixes to save the Mets’ grim season, many are already looking towards how the team can improve before next season. For some time now, part of the plan has been to sign one of baseball’s biggest aces in free agency.
Left-hander Tarik Skubal has been linked to New York for some time now, stirring up rumors last winter about a potential trade from the Detroit Tigers as he headed into his final year under contract.
Ultimately, the Tigers decided not to cash in on the back-to-back Cy Young winner, keeping him in Detroit for one more season. As a result, the Mets opted to trade for another one of baseball’s top starters in Freddy Peralta.
Skubal has been great again in 2026 for the Tigers, but his season has taken a big blow as he undergoes surgery to remove loose bodies in his throwing elbow. The typical recovery time for such an injury is about two to three months.
As Skubal faces months of time away from a major league mound, the league is anticipating some change to his value when he hits free agency this winter. According to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, multiple MLB executives have already agreed that Skubal’s recovery will dictate the contract he signs before next season.
New York will be one of the top pursuers of Skubal this offseason, even with the recent news of his injury. In a perfect world, it could even help the Mets secure the southpaw and strengthen their rotation.
Skubal was expected to land a record-breaking contract before his injury, but with teh Mets’ already sky-high payroll north of $300 million, justifying another nine-figure deal would be tough, especially if the season continues as it has started.
After pulling the trigger on the Peralta deal, who will also be a free agent after this year, the Mets’ intensity in the Skubal pursuit will depend on whether or not they extend Peralta, but there’s no question New York would love to have the two-time All-Star in blue pinstripes.
The Mets, along with several other clubs that are potential landing spots for Skubal this offseason, will be watching closely as Skubal returns from injury in the summer as he approaches free agency.