One Prediction Has Mets Paying Tarik Skubal $400 Million

By now, everybody in baseball knows that New York Mets owner Steve Cohen is not afraid to spend unreal money to add talent to the team. 

It wasn't too long ago that the Mets gave superstar slugger Juan Soto a whopping 15-year deal worth $765 million. 

So, the Mets showing interest and being named favorites for top free agent pitcher Tarik Skubal certainly makes sense. 

The Mets are one of six teams scheduled to meet with Skubal next week, and two teams are unknown. And, a lot of insiders and analysts have the Mets as the favorites, largely because Cohen has pockets deeper than just about anybody in the sport. 

Ryan Finkelstein of Just Baseball had predictions and contract projections for some of the top free agents, and he has Skubal going to the Mets on a bonkers nine-year, $400 million deal. That makes an average annual value of $44.4 million. 

Nine-year, $400 million is going to want his client to break the bank and set records in AAV and total money, so this prediction checks both of those boxes. 

For example, the Los Angeles Dodgers signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million deal when he came over to the majors. 

Max Scherzer has the record for AAV as a pitcher after he signed a three-year, $130 million deal ($43.33 million AAV) a few years back, but Skubal goes above both aspects if this prediction works out. 

The Mets acquired Freddy Peralta last offseason, but they ended up trading him to the Tampa Bay Rays, and they moved Clay Holmes in a deal with the Chicago Cubs in what was a frustrating season in Queens. 

The Mets fired manager Carlos Mendoza and named Andy Green as the new manager, and all indications show that Cohen is going to spend big this time around once again, especially with Soto's deal on the books and the need to capitalize on that as much as possible. 

Now, Skubal doesn't just want money. He also wants a chance to win a World Series, and the Mets' disappointing 2026 season and their collapse in 2025 might not help in that regard, although the ownership could convince Skubal that better baseball is on the horizon. 

At any rate, Skubal is going to have Brinks trucks in his front yard one way or another, and there is a realistic chance that he cashes in on a $400 million total money deal.