The New York Mets made a flurry of big moves recently, and most of them made a lot of sense. But signing Bo Bichette in free agency wasn’t one of them, as Bichette is expected to take over at third base despite the fact that he hasn’t played the position at all for any length of time.
But that’s really not why the Mets got Bichette. His big job is to step into the lineup slot occupied by departed first baseman Pete Alonso and protect outfielder Juan Soto.
There’s one key stat to watch in this shift, and that’s Soto’s walk numbers. He controls the strike zone as well as any power hitter in baseball, and the 127 walks he took last year were right in line with his walk numbers for the last four years.
But some experts were predicting a 200-walk season without Alonso hitting behind Soto, and they’re not wrong in that projection. The Mets have a lot of good hitters, but none have the power potential to make it worthwhile to do anything other than give Soto a free pass. especially in clutch situations.
Bichette can change that, and Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com thinks it could do a lot for Bichette, too. He maintains that it’s the player hitting behind the big power hitter who actually reaps the big benefits, and he cites some stats to prove it.
According to Harrigan, hitters batting bending Soto draw more walks (896) and have a higher OPB (.417) than anyone else in baseball since Soto came into the league. That’s individual, of course, but Alonso did lead the league last year in percentage of plate appearances with a runner on base at 50.8 percent.
Bichette’s number last year was 43 percent, and he’s never been over 45. He’s hit behind some good hitters, but Soto is simply in a league of his own in this particular offensive department. Moreover, Bichette has bee an MVP-caliber hitter when there’s traffic not he bases, according to Harrigan, posting a 144 wRC+, compared to just 107 with the bases empty.
As impressive as this advanced stat is, it does come with an important caveat—Bichette’s ability to adapt to New York. Hitting behind a good hitter with the Toronto Blue Jays is close to invisibility given the pressure Bichette will be under with the Mets, and while all the reports have him equipped with the talent to rise to the occasion, we still have to see it in person.