Most Mets fans are optimists by nature, and that’s why they think closer Edwin Diaz is going to resign with the team. Why else would they keep coming back for more from a team that constantly tortures its fan base with near misses and epic collapses like last season? 

But Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic isn’t part of the fan base, of course, and he sees what he described as a “perfect storm” coming, one in which the Mets lose Diaz to a set of circumstances that may or may not be under their control. 

The random variable creating the storm here, according to Rosenthal, is the Toronto Blue Jays, who were two outs away from winning the World Series before closer Jeff Hoffman stumbled. The Jays are eager to spend big, and Diaz is just as eager to cash in, hence the circumstances making this a match. 

Rosenthal also cites David Stearns as a variable in this scenario, but on a much smaller scale. Rosenthal cites Stearns initials as standing for Disciplined and Steady, and he thinks Stearns is ready to dive into what’s become a deep market for closers. 

There’s another variable here, of course, and that’s owner Steve Cohen, who’s often the opposite of disciplined and steady. He wants what he wants, and Cohen and his wife Alexa have often expressed a fondness for Diaz, so Mets fans are hoping the owner will blow away whatever massive offer the Jays make. 

But Diaz is playing the negotiating game here, and he’s doing it quite well. He just won the Trevor Hoffman Award for National League Reliever of the Year this week, and when he accepted the award in Las Vegas this week at the winter meetings, Diaz said his chances of returning to the Mets were “50-50.” Diaz also wants to win, which is his way of saying that the Mets’ collapse this year wasn’t his fault. 

The Jays aren’t just willing to spend big, either, according to Rosenthal. They’re open to sliding Hoffman into an eighth inning role if necessary, and they’re not adverse to giving up draft picks to get a guy like Diaz. The Jays have a larger problem with their rotation, and they’d prefer to spend there, but it’s understandable that they’re looking for a closer fix as well. 

Other clubs will be in on Diaz, too. Rosenthal mentioned the Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers as potential Diaz suitors, so Cohen will likely have to spend big to get his man. Right now it's a complicated game of free-agent chess, and as players go, Diaz is one of the most important pieces on the board.