The New York Mets are making some interesting bets this offseason. GM David Stearns is betting that it’s a good idea to move on from some big-contract veterans, with the big names being first baseman Pete Alonso, outfielder Brandon Nimmo and closer Edwin Diaz. Their replacements so far will be working on shorter deals, although we still don’t know who will replace Nimmo in left field.
There’s another bet being made here, and it’s far more subtle, but no less important. Stearns is betting that so-called “young veterans” like third baseman Brett Baty and catcher Francisco Alvarez will be able to replace at least some of the offense lost by eliminating Alonso and Nimmo from the lineup.
Will it work? Will Sammon and Tim Britton of The Athletic took up this question in their latest fan mailbag, and most of their speculation was based on a variety of expected stats.
The problem with these stats is the “expected” part, according to both writers, who summed it up as follows: “No team underperformed its expected win total by those metrics as much as the Mets did, because no team underperformed its overall batting line as much as the Mets did.”
They also stated that only the New York Yankees barreled up more balls than the Mets did last year, but the Mets finished in the bottom half of the league in batting average and slugging on those barreled balls they put in play.
Stats aside, this is more of a common-sense question. Baty is being relied on at first because he’s proven he can be part of a defensively-sound infield at third while providing a modicum of production. It’s a reasonable assumption based on what hedid last year, and it’s a heck of a lot better than relying on Mark Vientos, who provides more power and producing but proved utterly unreliable at third.
Alvarez is a very different player, however. The Mets signed him in part to provide power, and the catcher held up his end of the bargain when he first arrived in 2023, hitting 25 home runs to go with 63 RBIs, although his batting average was just .209. What’s followed has been an ongoing exercise in fits and starts, to the point where Alvarez was sent back to Triple A Syracuse last year to get his act together, both offensively and behind the plate.
This is a make-or-break season for Alvarez. He’s been tinkering with his swing angle, and he’s stated that he’ll have no issues hitting for power. If he does and the catcher can manage the staff and provide defense, the lineup will be much less of an issue, but all bets will be off if he fails again.