Can the Washington Nationals surpass last season's 66-win total in 2026? One outlet has it as close to a toss-up as it gets.
The next unofficial phase of the offseason begins today with pitchers and catchers back in workouts ahead of next Monday's first full team workout, inching first year manager Blake Butera and the Washington Nationals one inch closer toward Opening Day.
Washington will look to turn the page from its 66-win season one year ago, though the offseason has marked a flurry of smaller moves built around the trade that sent MacKenzie Gore to Texas in exchange for five prospects, including another top-100 prospect for the organization. But with Opening Day approaching, the roster still enters with several question marks despite president of baseball operations Paul Toboni hinting that the front office wasn't done making moves following last month's marquee trade.
But the biggest question is obvious: can Washington actually turn the page from a 66-win season? According to PECOTA's updated 2026 standing projections, the answer is...no.
PECOTA projected Washington to finish with 65.6 wins, just under last season's win total though in line with sports books as DraftKings projects a 65.5 preseason win total. The outlet also gives Washington a 0.1% chance to win the division and 0.2% chance to reach the playoffs, along with projecting the team to be outscored by 142 runs in 2026.
Roster-wise, maybe the most intriguing projection is Andrés Chaparro as the overwhelming projected first baseman, drawing 55% of the projected playing time compared to 20% for Luis Garcia and 10% for Matt Mervis and Abimelec Ortiz. Chaparro was among the first base candidates highlighted on Wednesday with Washington likely looking internally to fill the position in 2026 despite the obvious need all offseason, though he'll look to build on a good 2025 campaign after making his MLB debut in 2024.
PECOTA also projected Foster Griffin as the fifth starter alongside Cade Cavalli, Jake Irvin, Josiah Gray and Brad Lord with Andrew Alvarez and Mitchell Parker on the outside looking in, along with Cole Henry as the slight favorite to Clayton Beeter for the vacant closer role ahead of Opening Day with Sauryn Lao, Jackson Rutledge and Julián Fernández all drawing partial looks. Keibert Ruiz was also a slight favorite over Ford as the catcher with the two looking to battle through spring training, though Ford's first official month with the organization won't be full time after being named co-captain on Team Great Britain in the upcoming World Baseball Classic.
While the next month gives Butera, Toboni and the rest of the new leadership team a chance to make possible last-minute additions after analyzing the team in West Palm Beach, the projection marks a deflating yet expected outlook after a largely quiet offseason ahead of year one.
Washington has not finished above .500 since its World Series championship season in 2019, including a 55-win season in 2022, though now they'll look to make progress and prove the naysayers wrong behind a young and unproven roster.
The Nationals will open spring training next Saturday, Feb. 21 against both the St. Louis Cardinals and Houston Astros before traveling to Chicago to face the Cubs on March 26.