Baseball season is here! It's always the best time of the year, with America's Pastime getting started right while college basketball winds down and the Masters golf tournament keeps me glued to every shot.

I've covered major-league baseball off an on since 1980, in the spring, summer and fall. I love the game, mostly because of the daily drama that comes along with it for six months or more. 

For the past six years, I've covered the game closely, and one of the fun things we do every year is try to project who might have the best years, who might exceed expectations.

And who won't, too.

So since 2021, around Opening Day I've picked three teams to go over their projected wins totals for the year, and three to go under. It's always been fun to do, and it's an enjoyable six-month exercise to see how it plays out.

I don't gamble, so this is just for entertainment purposes only. But I've been pretty good. 

I went 5-1 in 2021, 4-2 in 2022 and 5-1 in 2023 and 2024.  It came down to the last game a few times, which made it more fun.

And there was 2025. 

Last year, I picked the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kansas City Royals and Tampa Bay Rays to go over their wins totals. None of them did. Though, to be fair, the Dodgers did win the World Series and I missed on the Royals by a half-game.

I missed on all three of my losers, too. The Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants all exceeded their projected wins totals. I wasn't too far off on the Cards and Giants, but missed badly on the Jays.

In my defense, last March they still hadn't signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and I was expecting a Toronto fire sale. Instead, they signed him, traded for others and wound up one out away from winning the World Series. That was a bad miss on my part.

So, yeah, do the math. A perfect 0-6. Shameful, and I'll admit that.

But like every great hitter, once you strike out, you climb right back into the box, looking to knock one out of the park.

So here are my picks for 2026. And here's the link to the story on the over/unders for all 30 teams.

CHICAGO CUBS (88.5 wins): There are three things in play here for why I'm riding with the Cubs this year. For one, I like what they did in the offseason, the rest of the division outside of the Pittsburgh Pirates is back-pedaling, and they've got the starting pitching to win high-leverage games — especially in September and October. I'm a big believer in Matthew Boyd, loved what Cade Horton did as a rookie, love the trade with Miami for Edward Cabrera and looking forward to the return of Justin Steele during the summer. The Cubs won 92 games last year, and I think they're better this year. They win the NL Central going away, and Alex Bregman has a big year. They won't miss Kyle Tucker as much as you think.

DETROIT TIGERS (85.5 wins): There are so many things that can go wrong with this pick, but I'm a firm believer that Detroit is all in on making a postseason run this year. I still like that their lineup can do a lot of damage on certain days, adding Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander to a rotation with Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize. And then there's Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball. He's the wild card. He's a free-agent at the end of the year, but I'm not falling for my Blue Jays mistake from a year ago. I think Detroit dominates the weak AL Central — the worst division in baseball — and fly way past the 85.5 total. I see them winning 90 games or more easily. Also remember that the Twins and White Sox are still terrible, and Cleveland did nothing in the offseason. They might win this division by 10-12 games.

SAN DIEGO PADRES (83.5 wins): I know there are some questions about the depth of the Padres' rotation, but I just don't see this team hovering around .500 all year. They've got big bats, Michael King is a stud and I would take their bullpen over anyone. The Dodgers are great, obviously, but I think the Padres are far better than the other three teams in the NL West, the Diamondbacks, Giants and Rockies. I see this team winning 86-88 games and contending for another playoff spot. And you're hearing it here first. Fernando Tatis Jr. will be an MVP candidate in 2026.

ATLANTA BRAVES (88.5 wins): The Braves already have a ton of injuries to deal with and I just don't like their roster overall. In the National League East, I think the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are far better, and I just don't see the Braves getting to 89 wins. They only won 76 games last year, and many people think that was just an outlier after nearly a decade of playoff appearances. I think it's more of a trend than an outlier. I'll be stunned if they get past 83 wins.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS (70.5 wins): The Angels improved from 63 wins to 72 last season, but I just don't see that trend continuing. They gave away more talent than they got back in the offseason, and their best move — bringing in pitcher Grayson Rodriguez — is off to a rocky start with him landing on the injured list. There are major questions about the back half of their rotation, their bullpen is average at best and they still don't hit enough. In my mind, they are clearly the worst team in the AL West.

NEW YORK YANKEES (91.5 wins): OK, here's the one that can really blow up in my face, but hear me out on this one. I just feel like the AL East is the best division in baseball from top to bottom. Even the Rays, who are picked to finish last, have some stars both offensively and on their pitching staff. Because Toronto, Baltimore and Boston are all better, AL East teams are going to beat up on each other all year. Getting to 92 might be a stretch. I wonder if the bottom of their order will hit enough, their rotation needs to hold it together until Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon return, and we have no idea what they'll be like when they come back. I also think the Yankees' bullpen has a lot to prove this year? How many games will they give away? The Yankees are good, and they might prove me wrong, but I can also see them walking into Baltimore or Toronto or Boston and getting swept here and there, too.