How the Baltimore Orioles Can Bring Back Trevor Rogers

The Baltimore Orioles must decide how aggressively to pursue left-hander Trevor Rogers, who is set to reach free agency after the 2026 season. The 28-year-old made 30 starts, finishing 10-11 with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP and 157 strikeouts across 169 2/3 innings.

Rogers spent time on the injured list with an illness in April but returned in May and completed the full season with 30 starts, the most of his major-league career.

The workload matters for Baltimore. The Orioles finished fourth in the American League East at 79-82 and missed the playoffs. Retaining a starter who can take the ball every fifth day gives the club a steadier foundation as it tries to get back to competing in a tough division.

Rogers has made it clear he wants to stay in Baltimore for the long haul. After his final start he told reporters he would love to be back, while acknowledging the business side is unpredictable.

He wants to be with a winning organization with strong talent and good coaching, which leaves the door open but does not close it to other suitors either. He is expected to be one of the top starting pitchers on the market this winter, second only to Tarik Skubal.

The Orioles signed Shane Baz to a five-year, $68 million extension this season. They also signed Kyle Bradish on a five-year deal worth $90 million. Rogers may cost more than both because Baltimore will have to compete with the rest of the league for his services.

Baltimore likely will offer Rogers the qualifying offer, a one-year deal set at just above $23.15 million. Rogers is unlikely to accept it given his projected market value, but declining it and signing elsewhere would send the Orioles a draft pick as compensation. 

A multi-year deal is the only realistic path to keeping him. Rogers is not going to accept any one-year deal, especially in a weak free agent class.

Projections have floated a five-year contract potentially exceeding $100 million, while a shorter three-year deal around $60 million has also been discussed as a more cautious outcome. An opt-out clause could give Rogers flexibility if he pitches as well as he did in 2025.

No talks have been reported yet between Rogers and the front office. After all, the World Series is still being played right now. The Orioles do want to bring him back and they will need to add more arms this offseason regardless of if he returns.