Orioles Face an Important Decision as Trevor Rogers’ Free Agency Begins

The Baltimore Orioles could have a difficult time competing for the biggest names in this year’s starting pitching market, but Trevor Rogers presents a more realistic opportunity as the offseason begins to take shape.

Rogers is the only player among The Athletic's Jim Bowden’s top 40 free agents for whom Baltimore is viewed as a “best team fit.” He ranked Rogers 15th on his list and projected a three-year, $64 million contract for the left-hander, a price that could make him an appealing option for an Orioles rotation looking to build on its existing core.

That projection stands out when compared with the contracts expected for some of the other prominent starters available. Bowden projected Tarik Skubal to receive between $350 million and $500 million, depending on the length of his contract. Freddy Peralta was projected for five years and $140 million, while Michael King landed at four years and $118 million.

Baltimore is unlikely to be a major player in that upper tier. The Orioles have already committed $68 million over five years to Shane Baz and $90 million over five years to Kyle Bradish, leaving Rogers as a more plausible target among the market’s leading free agents.

The financial picture has also shifted following the departures of Chris Bassitt and Zach Eflin, whose respective salaries of $18.5 million and $10 million are coming off the books. Eflin officially became a free agent Friday after making just one start before undergoing elbow-reconstructive surgery.

Rogers’ situation comes with an important deadline of its own. Baltimore is expected to extend him a $23.15 million qualifying offer by Monday, though he is also expected to decline it and pursue a longer-term contract. The qualifying offer would give the Orioles another decision to navigate as negotiations begin, with the two sides able to discuss a deal until the anticipated Dec. 1 lockout.

There is reason for Baltimore to be interested in keeping Rogers around. With his 29th birthday in two weeks, he is approaching his prime years, and MASN's Roch Kubatko noted that age should not be a concern for teams pursuing him. The left-hander is also entering a market in which several organizations may be priced out of the competition for Skubal, Peralta and King, potentially increasing demand for alternatives.

The Orioles do have internal options to consider, including Cade Povich, Trey Gibson and Luis De León, who is expected to return to a starting role after pitching in relief in September. Still, adding another established starter would give Baltimore more depth as it evaluates the rotation for next season.

Free agency has only just begun, and Rogers does not have to rush into a decision simply because the calendar is moving toward December. Baltimore, meanwhile, has a limited window to work toward an agreement before the anticipated labor stoppage.

For an Orioles team that may not be positioned to pursue the market’s most expensive arms, Rogers could represent one of its clearest opportunities to make a meaningful addition.