The Orioles Have a Much Bigger Question to Answer About Kyle Bradish

When the Baltimore Orioles gave Kyle Bradish a five-year, $90 million extension in July, they weren't paying him to be an average starting pitcher.

They were betting on the version of Bradish they had seen before Tommy John surgery that looked capable of anchoring a rotation for years to come. He just never found that level in 2026.

Bradish finished his first full season back from surgery with a 4.12 ERA over 29 starts and 155 innings, numbers that were respectable enough to keep him in the rotation for most of the year. His ERA+ finished at 99, essentially putting him right around league average.

For the Orioles, that distinction matters.

This wasn't a lost season for Bradish. He made enough starts to give Baltimore some much-needed stability and avoided the kind of prolonged absence that could have forced the club to lean heavily on its depth. But considering what the Orioles had already seen from him before his elbow surgery, and what they committed to him financially, there was clearly an expectation for more.

Mike Elias seemed to understand that when the Orioles made the extension official. And Bradish did show flashes of the pitcher Baltimore was hoping to get back.

After opening the season with a 5.03 ERA through his first seven starts, he settled into a much stronger stretch. From May 8 through Aug. 15, Bradish posted a 3.18 ERA across 17 starts. That stretch offered the Orioles something they could build around, even if it never lasted consistently enough across the entire season.

The problem was what happened around it.

Bradish finished with a 6.95 ERA over his final five outings, and his season ended early after he was placed on the injured list Sept. 13 with lower abdominal discomfort. Elias announced Monday that Bradish will undergo sports hernia surgery Tuesday in Philadelphia.

"It was not very long," Elias said about the discomfort becoming a factor, via MLB.com's Jake Rill. "It kind of flared up toward the end, and the last couple of starts, it was really a factor."

That injury may explain part of the late decline, but it doesn't completely change the larger evaluation of Bradish's season.

Baltimore is now heading into an offseason where Bradish and Shane Baz are expected to form the centerpieces of the rotation, while Brandon Young is coming off a breakout season. Trevor Rogers is also headed toward free agency after posting a 3.16 ERA over the past two seasons.

That makes Bradish's next season particularly important.

Elias said the Orioles are hopeful the surgery will go smoothly and that Bradish can have a relatively normal offseason before building toward Spring Training.

The Orioles have already made their long-term commitment.

What they need from Bradish now is a season that looks more like the pitcher they believed they were paying for.