Padres' Season Reliant On Ability To Get Extra-Bases In Game 3

The San Diego Padres will be resting today before taking the field at Petco Park tomorrow night, with hopes of saving their season. With the season on the line and each game now being win-or-go-home for the club, expect to see San Diego leave it all out on the diamond.

Despite being down 0-2 in the best-of-five series to the Milwaukee Brewers, the Padres have lost by just one run in each of the first two contests. Last night’s walk-off stings much more, but the reality is that both games were very winnable for a visiting Padres team against a Brewers team with the most wins in baseball.

What has been a struggle for the Padres in this divisional series is slugging, as they've only recorded one extra-base hit, a Manny Machado double, across the first two games. Despite their offensive success in the Wild Card series, this lack of slugging isn't necessarily a surprise.

After all, the Friars are lined up against the very best in baseball at preventing extra-base hits and home runs. The Brewers’ .361 opponent slugging percentage in the regular season put them atop the leaderboards, and they’re taking that into the NLDS.

Facing almost-certain National League Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1, slugging was always going to be an issue. His .255 expected opponent slugging is elite, with his slider being the only pitch in his repertoire that batters slugged over .262 against. Game 2’s starter Logan Henderson doesn’t have the same numbers when it comes to hard hits, but he didn’t allow anything more than two singles in last night’s outing.

San Diego has the worst slugging numbers of any NLDS team that’s played at least two games thus far, at just .221. Comparing that to their .563 slugging in two Wild Card games, the contrast between the two series is stark.

RHP Dustin May will get the start for the Brewers in Game 3 tomorrow night. His .397 expected slugging against boosts the Padres’ chances of turning things around, although that’s still a number indicative of a pitcher good at suppressing extra-base hits.

Looking at the bigger picture, the Padres could be in a much worse spot. Two games on the road, against baseball’s best team, and they lose by just one run in each. Now set to host for the next couple of games, it wouldn't at all be a surprise to me if they force a Game 5.

To get there, however, they’ll need to find a way to hit balls hard against Milwaukee. With the home fans’ support, I think we’ll see balls flying around Petco tomorrow night.