Bogaerts Has 2nd-Most Untradeable Contract

When MLB teams sign veteran players with a proven track history of success to long-term, multi-million-dollar contracts, they hope those deals will age like a fine wine, not quickly turn into vinegar.

Well, the 11-year, $280-million contract the San Diego Padres gave to free-agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts, late of the Boston Red Sox, prior to the 2023 season has begun to smell a little pungent.

Signing Bogaerts in 2023 was just the latest big swing for a Padres' team that found itself needing to engage in an arms' race just to stay within shouting distance of the Death Star up the coast, the free-spending and constantly winning Los Angeles Dodgers.

The case for adding Bogaerts was persuasive. In his final five seasons with the Red Sox, Bogaerts finished in the top 17 of AL Most Valuable Player voting in all five, topped out by a fifth-place finish in his 6.3-WAR 2019 season when he accumulated career highs in doubles (52), home runs (33), RBIs (117), OPS (.939) and OPS+ (144).

In the five seasons from 2018-22, on average he hit .300 with an .880 OPS, 35 doubles, 21 homers, 81 RBIs and an OPS+ of 133 with an average WAR of 4.6. Those numbers allowed him to win three Silver Sluggers and appear in three All-Star Games during that span.

In 2023, Bogaerts did have a solid 4.2-WAR first season with the Padres thanks to 19 homers, 31 doubles, 19 stolen bases and a .790 OPS.

But his performance has declined steeply from 2024-26. In those three years, he is averaging just .252 at the plate with 21 doubles, 12 HRs, 51 RBIs, .695 OPS, 94 OPS+ and 1.8 WAR.

Somewhat oddly, the one area where his game has improved since arriving in San Diego is stolen bases as he had a career-best 22 this year after swiping 20 in 2025, but a few more stolen bases is not what you're looking for from a guy who is owed $175 million total ($25.5 million a season) between now and when he turns 40 in 2033.

That's why even trying to trade Bogaerts is very problematic, with Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter opining on Nov. 6 that Bogaerts currently has MLB's second-most untradeable contract.

That is not insignificant as we continue to work our way into the offseason while being cognizant of the fact that the new CBA that will eventually emerge from the impending lockout of MLB players by the owners could feature a salary cap that will make millstone contracts like Bogaerts' even more untenable.

"[Bogaerts'] baseline production has already dipped considerably from his peak performance in Boston," Reuter wrote. "The Padres will be paying him and Manny Machado a combined $64.5 million annually through the 2033 season, and if there is a salary cap instituted in the near future, that could be a significant hurdle in building a competitive roster."

It also means that if the Padres are to even attempt to get out from under Bogaerts' contract, they will probably have to eat a significant amount of money to do so, which could hamper efforts to acquire another large contract via trade or ink a star player to a free-agent deal.