Could Nick Pivetta Be Making His Final Start For San Diego On Tuesday?

The stakes have become "win or go home" for the San Diego Padres as they welcome the Milwaukee Brewers to what promises to be a raucous Petco Park on Tuesday night for Game Three of the National League Divisional Series.

Trailing 2-0 in the series, the Padres know they will need to win the next three games against the Brewers in order to advance to the NL Championship Series against the Atlanta Braves or Los Angeles Dodgers.

Given the assignment to halt the Brewers on Tuesday is veteran right-hander Nick Pivetta, who will face off with Milwaukee's Dustin May with the Padres' season on the line.

Pivetta enters the contest coming off what some have described as an "elite" 3.1-inning, four-strikeout performance in Game Two of the Wild Card series against the Chicago Cubs, a contest the Padres won 4-1 to complete the two-game sweep.

While Pivetta will enter Game Three laser-focused on extending the Padres' season, he will do so with less control, not necessarily of his pitches, but of his future with the team.

In February 2025, Pivetta inked a four-year, $55-million free-agent contract with the Padres. A clause in the contract said Pivetta would have the option to stay with the club for a salary of $14 million in 2027 and $18 in 2028. However, if Pivetta were to spend more than 130 days on the IL in either 2025 or 2026, that option would come at the discretion of the Padres following the 2026 season.

While Pivetta was healthy in 2025, a flexor strain in his right elbow that he suffered on April 12 led an IL stint in 2026 that totaled 147 days before he returned on Sept. 7, meaning Padres' management now controlled his future with the team.

No one in team management has so far indicated what they may be thinking in regard to Pivetta's future, but the simple fact is that Pivetta has more than lived up to his end of the contractual bargain.

In his healthy 2025, Pivetta made 31 starts for the Padres and worked into the sixth inning or later in 25 of them while compiling a 13-5 record and career-bests in innings pitched (181.2) and ERA (2.87 in 10 more starts). After he returned from the IL in September, Pivetta fashioned four strong starts totaling 18.2 innings with three earned runs allowed, good for a 1.45 ERA. Then came his strong showing against the Cubs.

So, what might the Padres be thinking? Before this season's injury, the 33-year-old Pivetta had made an average of 27 starts per season for the Boston Red Sox and Padres from 2021-25 with a 48-40 record and a cumulative 4.00 ERA in 804.2 innings.

In today's MLB, that sounds like a workhorse pitcher worth $14 million and $18 million over the next two seasons.

Padres' management will also have to weigh the fact that the 2027 rotation could have an entirely different look than it did in 2026. All of Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize are in the final years of their deals and ace Michael King could chose to opt out of the final two years of his pact. While the Padres could bring back one or more of the above, theoretically that leaves Pivetta and Randy Vasquez as the lone holdovers.

Looking at the free-agent market, Tarik Skubal of the Los Angeles Dodgers is the big fish, but will the Padres choose to swim in the deepest end of the pond? Other notable names are Kevin Gausman and Shota Imanaga of the Chicago Cubs, and Freddy Peralta of the Tampa Bay Rays, with the option statuses of Sonny Gray of the Boston Red Sox (club/player option), Drew Rasmussen of Tampa Bay (club), Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins (club) and Corbin Burnes of the Arizona Diamondbacks (player) determining whether or not they will hit the open market.

Internally, the Padres' options appear to be limited. According to MLB Pipeline, the system's minor-league starters who are closest to reaching the major-league level are left-handers Luis Gutierrez and Jagger Haynes, who rank 12th and 14th, respectively, on the list of San Diego's top prospects. Both also struggled in 2026, as they went a combined 4-11 over 40 starts, most of them at either Double-A San Antonio or Triple-A El Paso, with Gutierrez posting a 4.25 ERA and Haynes' sitting at 4.80.

So, while Padres' fans watch Pivetta pitch on Tuesday hoping for a season-extending victory, keep in mind there's a chance it may be his last appearance in the Brown-and-Yellow, though circumstances may seem to indicate a Padres-Pivetta reunion in 2027 may be more likely than not.