The San Diego Padres have been dealing with the possibility of losing their ace, Dylan Cease, ever since he became a free agent at the end of the season, and now that possibility is real. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, the Toronto Blue Jays are in the process of finalizing a seven-year, $210 million deal with Cease, pending his successful completion of a physical.
The move is expected, but it still stings for both the Padres and their fan base. Cease has become a mostly-beloved figure in San Diego, and he’s the only pitcher in the league to post over 200 strikeouts in each of his last five seasons.
The Padres inability or unwillingness to resign Cease is based on several factors. The Pads are already over the luxury tax with several bloated contracts that have big payments coming, and while the terms of Cease’s deal mostly represent fair market value, signing him would also have increased San Diego’s tax penalty.
The years were also a concern. Cease will turn 30 next month, which means he’ll be 37 at the end of this deal, and some evaluators think he’s already peaked as a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.
Managerial changes were also behind the Padres’ potential resigning of Cease. The unexpected resignation of manager Mike Shildt caused several weeks of delays as the San Diego chose former Padres reliever to lead the club, and many of the early signals being sent out by GM A.J. Preller had the club possibly converting relievers like Mason Miller and/or Adrian Morejon to starters.
The impending sale of the team has also compromised payroll projections, and the Padres may have underestimated the strength of the immediate market for Cease along with the Blue Jays willingness to pay top dollar.
It’s still possible that the Padres could try to re-sign their other free agent starter, Michael King, but that’s tbd. King would cost less because he’s coming off an injury, but it’s anyone’s guess if the Padres would pivot back toward signing King now that Cease is off the market.
For the Blue Jays, the length of this deal also represents a risk, and assessing the medicals will be an important part of finalizing this signing. Given how close Toronto came to beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, signing Cease is a clear indication that they’re going all in on giving it a serious shot in 2026.