Keeping This Key Reliever Will Be A Tough Call For Padres

The San Diego Padres have multiple free agents this offseason, and there’s no way they’ll be able to keep all of them. One of the toughest calls will be reliever Jason Adam, who’s going to be a challenging evaluation going forward. 

Adam’s talent is unquestioned, but his health is what makes this call especially dicey. Adam was out for most of last year, and he missed time this year as well. 

Given the context, describing his injuries is important. Last year it was a torn quad that took Adam off the mound for months, and the Padres had to make multiple key adjustments. This year it was a shoulder strain that took him out, and the 35-year old Adam is at the age where it looks like that’s going to be a constant concern. 

More importantly, Adam never seemed to establish a level of trust with manager Craig Stammen to the point where the right-hander became a preferred option. Stammen’s preferred order was Bradgley Rodriguez, Adrian Morejon and then Mason Miller, with the first two relievers sometimes flipped around, and middle innings often went to left-hander Yuki Matsui, who was often being used as a late inning option by the end of the year. 

All of which makes keeping Adam a tough call. He’s expressed a desire to be in San Diego, but he and the Padres haven’t talked money yet, and the Padres will be up against it regardless of what happens with the lockout. 

Adam made $6.675 million last year, which was more than reasonable when he was durable. But his lack of ability makes him more problematic, and Spotrac currently has his value pegged at $8.7 million for a one-year deal. 

Could Adam do better on the open market? That’s where things get interesting. The GM meetings in November are going to generate a lot of activity, and there may be teams looking for relievers with a strong history to add to their staff. 

That’s Adam to a T, and he could hit the jackpot. For the Padres, anything over $8 million is probably an overpay that puts a weighted value on his tenure with the franchise. If Adam comes in at over $10 million a year or he somehow manages to get a two-year deal with his injury history, the Padres should let him walk. 

That gray area between $8-10 million will be a tough call that also depends on some of the other moving parts and pieces in the Padres bullpen.