The San Diego Padres enter the final week of the regular season all but assured of capturing a National League wild-card berth, but things get a little murky from there.
From 30,000 feet, the National League playoff picture seems pretty clear: the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves have won their divisions and the San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies will be the league's three wild-card teams. But (a word that will appear often in this exercise) if you zoom in and wander down a few rabbit holes, the permutations are more "Six Degrees of Eddie Bacon" (shoutout to MLB's only player named "Bacon," who appeared in three games for the Philadelphia Athletics in 1917) and less straightforward march to the finish line.
In terms of tiebreakers, the Cubs hold the hammer thanks to their 6-1 record against Philadelphia and 5-1 mark against the Padres this season. That means in any two- or three-way tie scenario, the Cubs would grab the top wild-card spot and host all three games against the second-best wild-card team, with the third wild-card team playing at the lowest-ranked division winner. Should the Padres and Phillies finish with identical records, Philadelphia would garner the higher seed courtesy of their 6-0 season sweep of San Diego.
In terms of vibes, the three clubs are in much different places.
The Cubs took a gut punch in Cincinnati on Sunday when third baseman Alex Bregman was hit in the face by a foul ball and suffered multiple facial fractures, putting his availability not only for this week but for the playoffs as a whole in doubt. That would leave a huge hole in the North Siders' lineup as Bregman has been their second-best hitter since the All-Star Break.
The cause of angst for the Phillies is a bullpen, which - outside of closer Jhoan Duran - is in turmoil, highlighted by demotions and the news that rookie starter Andrew Painter may become a bullpen piece moving forward.
By comparison, it should be all peaches and cream in the Padres' headspace. Winners of five in a row and 13 of 14 since Sept. 6, San Diego is oozing confidence as the week begins. They do have, however, (another way to say "but") have a pesky itch that they haven't quite been able to scratch this season: the Dodgers.
San Diego opens the week up the coast in Chavez Ravine against their nemesis, against whom they have a 3-7 record so far this year. To highlight the importance of the series, manager Craig Stammen has shuffled his rotation so that Michael King will start on Tuesday night
"What does it matter," you may wonder, "the Dodgers have already clinched?" Well, it apparently matters quite a bit to Dave Roberts. With Blake Snell leaving his last start early and Shohei Ohtani's mound availability still TBD, Roberts has begun tinkering with his pitching staff.
That is not only with the Padres in mind, but with the idea that the Dodgers (96-60) can still catch the Brewers (98-58) for the overall No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
For their part, aside from the top-seed speculation, the Brewers will also have a direct hand in the final wild-card standings as they visit Philadelphia for three games beginning on Tuesday night. All in all, the Phillies have the toughest final-week schedule in all of baseball because after the Brewers depart, the Tampa Bay Rays - 95-60 and currently the AL's No. 1 seed - arrive to close out the season in the City of Brotherly Love.
For what it's worth, the Cubs appear to have the easiest series to open the week as they host the Miami Marlins (76-80), but (that word again) who knows, maybe Miami will be motivated to win at least five of their final six to avoid a sub-.500 record? They finish the season with three at the Atlanta Braves, who have their own final-week inspiration. At 92-64, they are an intimidating four games behind the Dodgers in the chase for the No. 2 seed and first-round bye, but who knows what may happen, as they do hold a 5-1 tiebreaker over LA. At the least, it makes the Braves huge Padres fans beginning today.
But there is still one pesky fly in the wild-card playoff ointment: the Arizona Diamondbacks. Sitting at 82-74 and five games behind the Cubs and Padres and four in arrears of the Phillies, the D-backs are the reason none of the other three have been able to officially clinch a playoff spot yet.
Sure, making up four or five games over a six-game span would be a miracle that would make Lourdes proud, but keep in mind that Arizona spends Tuesday-Thursday in Denver facing the 99-loss Colorado Rockies. An Arizona sweep coupled with a Dodgers sweep of the Padres would leave the D-backs only two games behind as they invade Petco Park for three season-ending games starting Friday. That means the Padres would need to win at least one game to clinch a playoff berth and if the D-backs were to win the first two, Sunday's game would be a winner-take-all battle to punch a playoff ticket.
In this era of daily interleague play, what happens in one league can have a lasting effect on what happens in the other. With that in mind, let's take a look at the bubbling morass that is the American League playoff situation.
All we know for sure is that Tampa Bay, the New York Yankees (89-66) and the Boston Red Sox (84-72) have clinched playoff berths but no seeds are yet determined. The week kicks off Tuesday afternoon with a day-night doubleheader in The Bronx between the Yankees and the Rays. If New York were to sweep the four-game series they'd move to within shouting distance of the Rays for the No. 1 seed and the Yankees close their slate with three at home against the Baltimore Orioles (76-81), while we've already noted that the Rays conclude with three at playoff-hunting Philadelphia.
Conversely (a fancy way of saying "but"), if the Yankees get swept by the Rays that means the Red Sox could conceivably catch them for the top wild-card seed, which would allow them to host their ancient rivals at Fenway Park in the first round. Boston opens the week with a three-game visit from the Cleveland Guardians (81-75), who hold a one-game lead in the AL Central.
At this point, let's introduce the Chicago White Sox (80-76) to the chat. The season's most unexpected and heartwarming story, the Sox lost a total of 324 games from 2023-25 and a modern-day record 121 in 2024. Today, though, they sit on the cusp of the playoffs, which would be a first for any franchise that has had consecutive 100-loss seasons, let alone three straight.
The Sox start the week one game behind the Guardians in the AL Central and three ahead of the Houston Astros (77-79) for the final wild-card spot. They open play Tuesday night in Missouri to face the Kansas City Royals (67-89) and finish with a weekend home set against the aforementioned Rockies and their MLB-worst record.
The White Sox obviously want the Red Sox to beat the Guardians while they're handling the Royals so they can improve their chances of winning the AL Central, which will likely bring a desired No. 2 seed and first-round bye. But (there it is...OK, I'll stop) if the Guardians sweep Boston and the Sox sweep the Royals, Chicago would be only one game behind the Red Sox for the No. 2 wild-card slot. Now, you can argue that facing the winner of the AL West would be preferable to squaring off with the Yankees in the first round, but the Sox are playing with house money at this point, so why not take a crack at the Evil Empire?
The week's early results will also determine Boston's mindset heading into the final weekend. Will they be trying to catch the Yankees or hold off the White Sox? Or will they be safely ensconced in the No. 2 wild-card spot and able to rest some regulars and set up their pitching rotation for next week?
Why is this important? Because Boston - in what-comes-around-goes-around fashion - is hosting the Cubs from Friday to Sunday. So, will the Red Sox be in full-on warrior mode or enjoying an iced tea on the veranda? And what will be the Cubs' mindset, ready to battle to the finish with the Padres and Phillies or sitting back and praying that Bregman can play next week?
Whew, all of these intricate playoff permutations are enough to leave you sitting in a corner, hugging your knees, rocking back and forth and muttering the words to "Casey at the Bat."
That's the reason why, despite six months of combat and 162 games of regular-season evidence, the MLB postseason is the hardest to predict. Sure, there have been dynasties and the Death Star Dodgers hope to cement a dynastic legacy with a third consecutive World Series title next month, but surprises do abound.
Who among us saw the Minnesota Twins winning two titles between 1987 and 1991 or the White Sox snapping an 88-year title-less drought in 2005? The Cubs were a machine in 2016, but even their staunchest fans had to be wondering if their 100-year-plus barren patch would ever end when they fell behind Cleveland 3-1 in 2016. Heck, raise your hand if you had the Texas Rangers and D-backs battling for the title in 2023 when the playoffs started that year?
So, no matter how things play out this week for the Padres, their fans and beyond, when the playoffs start on Sept. 29, it will be best to heed the words of legendary White Sox Hall of Fame announcer Ken "The Hawk" Harrelson and "Sit back, relax and strap it down," for it's going to be a wild ride.
