Padres Have A Pitching Problem, But It’s Not What You Think

Everyone knows that the San Diego Padres have a strong bullpen that’s the main strength of the team, but the starting rotation is another matter entirely. Michael King was the only reliable starter by the end of the season, and the Padres are looking at the possibility of having to sign a veteran starter who’s already over 30 to a long-term deal that would add to their luxury tax bill if that system gets maintained. 

That’s not typically the way good teams win, and it gets worse from there. Two other rotation candidates, Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove, are both older and coming off injury-riddled seasons, and the only other viable starter who’s under 30 is Randy Vasquez, who was considered a back-of-the-rotation option before he overperformed this year. 

This raises another problem with the Padres rotation — they essentially have no way to get younger. Both Casey Mize and Robbie Ray failed badly at key moments, and while Mize is technically in his prime at 29, he didn’t look anything like a keeper in his brief tenure in San Diego. Walker Buehler is well into the back nine of his career, and all of the talented pitchers on the roster who are young are relievers. 

Young, controllable starters are the most valuable commodity in baseball, but the Padres don’t have any real way to get one. Even Tarik Skubal, who will be the belle of the ball in this year’s free agent market, is 29 and coming off a pair of elbow procedures. 

Trading for young starters is expensive, but the Padres don’t even have the currency for that. They have an aging veteran roster that desperately needs to get younger, but the teams that are willing to do this want good prospects with a high ceiling, along with a player or two who can step in right away. 

The Padres don’t have any of those, because they trade them on an annual basis. Catcher Ethan Salas made it up through the ranks this year, but GM A.J. Preller once again stripped the farm system to get Mize and Ray. 

Those same teams that have young starters typically don’t let them get to free agency, either, so that route also isn’t all that tenable. This is the price for running a franchise without a solid pipeline of prospects, and it’s left the Padres without a good way to get younger in their rotation. It’s a problem that’s going to require a creative solution from Preller, and even that might not be enough to solve the problem.