Will the San Diego Padres actually have a starting rotation next year?

This may sound like a ridiculous question, but it’s not. The Padres are already facing the prospect of losing half their starting rotation due to free agency with Dylan Cease and Michael King hitting the market, and fellow starter Yu Darvish announced today that he’ll miss the 2026 season after undergoing elbow surgery. 

One surprising part of this news was that Darvish himself tweeted out the news, which was then relayed by Jeff Passan of ESPN. Typically offseason surgeries are announced by the team, but Darvish’s long, successful career certainly gives him the right to handle the news about his medical affairs as he sees fit. The announcement was finally verified by ESPN today. 

The surgery was performed by Darvish’s own physician, orthopedic surgeon Keith Meister, and it involved repairing a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and adding an internal brace to help ensure a successful recovery. Given that Darvish is 39, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if this surgery ended his illustrious career. 

While this certainly isn’t good news, it may not be as big a hit as it appears to be at first glance. Darvish struggled this season with an ERA of 5.38, and he  failed badly in his lone postseason start as former manager Mike Shildt elected to go with Darvish in the deciding game of the wild-card series against the Chicago Cubs. Darvish failed miserably, failing to make it beyond the first inning in what became a 3-1 loss. 

Darvish is currently in the middle of a long-term deal with the Padres that has him slated to earn $43 million over the next three years, according to Spotrac, and now the Pads can collect the insurance money on that deal and try to figure out their starting rotation for next year. 

It won’t be easy.  Erstwhile ace Nick Pivetta effectively becomes the last man standing in the Padres’ rotation together along with right-hander Randy Vasquez, and no one else threw more than a hundred innings for the Padres this year as they leaned heavily into their stellar bullpen. 

We’re still not sure who will be replacing Cease, King and Darvish if all three are gone or unavailable, nor do we know who will be assigning starts next season. GM A.J. Preller  still hasn’t been extended beyond next season, and Shildt’s replacement has yet to be announced, although former Cardinals and Angels first baseman Albert Pujols is currently the favorite after a nine-hour interview with the team last week.