The San Diego Padres should be getting better hitting results based on the expected metrics, but that's not happening.
The San Diego Padres offense is scuffling, and they’re having some bad hitting luck on top of it. These two things can be true, according to AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, who took a deeper dive into San Diego’s issues, which have resulted in the Padres scoring three or less runs in six of their seven games so far.
Cassevell thinks the results should be better, based on an expected batting average number of .251, which is countered with a .202 average in real life. That’s the biggest gap in the league, according to Cassavell, and Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is well aware of it.
“Luck,” Tatis said, “has abandoned us.”
The weighted average that measures the comparative value of different hits, e.g., doubles over singles, etc., with a team average of .268 so far that’s 39 points worse than the expected number.
“The at-bats have been good,” said second baseman Jake Cronenworth. “I think the quality of contact has been good. Again, it doesn’t seem like anything is falling for anybody.”
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts has been the worst victim, according to Cassavell, who quoted more expected numbers while adding that Bogaerts was robbed of a home run by Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran, who made a leaping catch in front of the left field wall in Fenway.
“Hate that,” Bogaerts said about the projected numbers earlier this week. “I’m not that type of guy. Hitting balls right at guys or looking at expected stats -- I’m never that type of guy. It’s a little frustrating. We all want results. We all want to win.”
Manager Craig Stammen isn’t in denial about this, either. The Padres’ coaching staff is preaching to hitters to stay the course so far given that the swing decisions have been good, but Stammen has been on enough sketchy offensive teams to see where this is headed.
“Sooner or later the expected numbers aren’t going to be expected -- they’re going to be real,” said Stammen.
The turned real yesterday in Boston, as Tatis, Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado and Ramon Laureano combined to go 0-for-19 against soft-tossing Red Sox starter Sonny Gray. There isn’t much Stammen can do right now other than say the right thing, so he proceeded accordingly.
“Just trust themselves,” Stammen said. “Trust what they’ve done in the past and who they are as people and who they are as hitters.
“I’ve got complete confidence that they’re going to be just fine.”
Today’s starter for Boston is rookie Connelly Early, so opportunity is knocking. Early has pitched well so far for the Red Sox, but the Padres can’t afford to get shut down completely and face the possibility of a sweep tomorrow. At some point this expected stuff starts to become whistling in the dark, and we're close to that right now.