Mason Miller’s historic dominance offers a glimmer of hope as Manny Machado’s alarming slump drags San Diego down the standings, leaving the fading Friars desperate for answers.
Who's been the biggest factor in the Padres' lack of success in 2026?
The San Diego Padres are fighting for second place in the National League West despite holding the sole position in first place in the division in May. The all-too-regular struggles seem to have finally caught up to the Padres, who are now tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks at 34-31 –– a significant 7.5 games back ahead of the division-leading Los Angeles Dodgers.
The quick fall down to Earth has been a wake-up call for San Diego, as they’ve lost five of six series since the 18th of May. With several of their stars not performing to their expected level, it honestly may be a surprise that it has taken this long for the Padres to be faced with real consequences.
With a large chunk of the 2026 campaign already being played out, it’s an appropriate time to take a look at the analytics and look at which player is giving the Padres the most hope as they look to return to the postseason, and another who is holding them back the most.
There are a few Padres who have stepped up big in the absence of stars this season. First baseman Gavin Sheets has been one of the more reliable at-bats in the lineup this year, making up for losing Luis Arraez in free agency.
San Diego’s re-signee Michael King has also had a great year, taking the reins of the starting rotation with Nick Pivetta out with injury. His 3.41 ERA has been enough to justify the $75 extension he earned in the offseason.
Still, the Padres’ best player this season has been closing pitcher Mason Miller. With a sub-1.00 ERA in 27 ⅔ innings, Miller has been the most consistent thing to come out of Petco Park in 2025. One look at Miller’s Baseball Savant page tells you all you need to know about his dominance on the mound this season.
Ranking in the 100th percentile in expected ERA, expected batting average, fastball velocity, average exit velocity, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, barrel percentage, and hard-hit percentage, it’s a pretty clear choice who the best player on this Padres team has been. To put it into simple terms, when you see Miller come to the mound, you may as well just turn the channel because you know Miller will take care of business.
On the other hand, there are many vying for the Padres’ worst player honors, such as Jake Cronenworth, Jackson Merrill, Matt Waldron, and even the underwhelming Fernando Tatis Jr. While each of the aforementioned players has had a horrible 2026 season, none has been more painfully obvious than that of Manny Machado.
Machado still has an OPS below .600 through 229 at-bats, with a brutal slash line of .166/.250/.336. His barrel percentage has dropped nearly five percent from last season, and his hard-hit percentage has dropped nine percent. As an All-Star and Silver Slugger just last year, his sharp decline at the plate has been a cloud over the Padres’ all year long.
He may not statistically be the worst-performing Padres player of 2026, but he is the leader of the team, and when your leader is actively making it hard for you to win ball games, it sure makes a postseason pursuit much more difficult.
