The San Diego Padres are getting a lot of attention for having a quiet offseason, but that quiescent state is actually the reason they’re getting so much attention. Standing still isn’t an option when you're competing in a division with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and as a result of their offseason inertia, the Padres were labeled one of four teams that David Adler of MLB.com described as “trending downward.”
It’s hard to argue with his assessment, but what’s noteworthy about Adler’s writeup is that it’s the first one that actually projects the Padres to be under .500. His projection has them finishing with a record of 79-83 and going from being the second NL wild card team to fourth in the NL West.
Most evaluators have given the Padres a bit of a mulligan so far given the talent that remains. While shortstop Xander Bogaerts is clearly in decline, third baseman Manny Machado is still playing at a Hall of Fame level, and right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is still a potential MVP candidate, especially if he’s fixed his swing mechanics as he recently claimed at the team’s FanFest event. Add in a healthy Jackson Merrill in center field, and there’s some serious weaponry in the middle of the Padres lineup.
The bullpen is worth a mulligan, too. They’ll have a bigger workload this year, but reliever Mason Miller is a rising star who could step into the closer role, and lefty Adrian Morejon has been a bullpen stud as well. Reliever Jeremiah Estrada will also contribute, and the return of right-hander Jason Adam from a quad injury will bolster the pen even more.
We all know what this projection is really about, though—-the starting rotation. It’s paper thin after losing ace Dylan Cease in free agency, and the Padres haven’t added another reliever to replace closer Robert Suarez, who also left via free agency. The Padres did re-sign starter Michael King to a creative three-year deal, but both King and right-hander Joe Musgrove are coming off injuries.
There have also been some positional losses without any subsequent additions. First baseman Ryan O’Hearn left to join the Pittsburgh Pirates in free agency, and so did first baseman Luis Arraez, who signed with the San Francisco Giants last weekend. The result is a level of uncertainty that’s dropped the Padres to fourth in the NL West standings in this projection, but take heart--the Padres play in a division with the Colorado Rockies.