Key departures leave holes, but elite talent like Tatis Jr. and Machado offers a slim playoff path. Can they defy the odds?
The San Diego Padres are entering the 2026 campaign with back-to-back seasons of at least 90 wins under their belt, but it will be much harder for them this season to continue such a streak.
Key players have gone out the door for San Diego and left gaping holes in their place. Right-handed starter Dylan Cease left for a $210 million deal with the American League champion Toronto Blue Jays, right-handed reliever Robert Suarez signed for $45 million with the Atlanta Braves, and first basemen Luis Arraez and Ryan O’Hearn have also both found new clubs for the 2026 campaign.
This has left general manager and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller to fill their holes, but the club’s financial troubles have held him back from doing anything past that. Even saying the Padres have filled those holes is a stretch, as they still have a missing spot at the end of their starting rotation and a lack of positional player depth.
Because of their key players leaving and not much coming in this offseason, the Friars currently have a 22.1% chance to make the postseason according to FanGraphs projected standings. In a recent article, MLB.com writer Jared Greenspan listed the ways that the Padres could defy these low odds and punch their ticket into the 2026 postseason.
The way that Greenspan claimed the Padres could defy their low odds comes down to their starpower. A lineup with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado can never be overlooked, especially with players like Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts behind them.
In the pitching staff, closer Mason Miller has proven his status as a star in the league, especially after his dominant end to 2025, including his performance in the Wild Card round last fall. San Diego may not have a true ace in their rotation, but Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and a healthy Joe Musgrove are an amazing top three.
The key is health. Musgrove hasn’t pitched since 2024 after tearing his UCL in the postseason of that year. He’s been great for the Padres since joining in 2021, but it may take time for him to return to his previous levels in 2026. King only started 15 games last season after dealing with injuries, yet still re-signed for $75 million this winter.
If San Diego’s superstars and stars can stay on the field in 2026, the Friars will be a team that can beat anybody on any given day. Though they may not have the best chances entering 2026 to have another postseason clinching season, it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Padres playing in October this fall.