As the initial days of free agency play out, the San Diego Padres are getting some of the news they expected. Closer Robert Suarez has officially opted out of his two year deal, according to John Heyman of the New York Post, and he’ll undoubtedly have plenty of suitors. 

The expected value of Suarez’s contract was also part of a projection piece in the Athletic, and the Padres got an especially grim forecast in this one. According to Tim Britton of The Athletic, the deal for starter Dylan Cease is expected to be six years for $196 million. 

Britton threw out these numbers while acknowledging that Cease’s back-of-the-baseball-card numbers were subpar in 2025. He had an ERA of over 4.50 for the second time in three seasons, and Cease threw the fewest number of innings since 2021. 

The innings issue was reflected in former manager Mike Shildt’s tactics with Cease in the playoffs. Shildt handled Cease with kid gloves, and his short outing clearly indicated the lack of confidence in the guy who was supposed to be the staff ace.

There’s one number that will get Cease paid, however—his strikeout rate. It was 33.3 percent this year, which was a career best. Combine that number with a consecutive streak of five straight seasons with over 200 strikeouts, and that will get Cease at least close to the predicted number. 

The Padres should pass on this. Posting a high ERA in a park like Petco is a bad sign, and Cease’s strikeout numbers are sure to drop, perhaps precipitously, in the back half of a deal like this. 

Fellow starter Michael King would be a much better bet next year if the Padres like his medicals. King’s projected numbers in Britton’s piece were three years, $75 million, which would be a much more palatable deal given the relatively short number of years. 

But it wouldn’t be surprising if the Padres passed on both Cease and King. The rumor mill has them cutting payroll, and we still don’t know when GM A.J. Preller be extended, much less how much he’ll have to spend. Not to mention the fact that a manager hasn’t been hired yet. 

As for Suarez, his numbers were projected to be three years for a total of $54 million, which would be a solid signing if the Padres can reel him in at that number. He’s a known quantity who still throws hard, so this number makes sense, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the rest of the Padres' staff.