Every MLB team has key statistical markers that they use to evaluate performance, whether that performance is about hitting, fielding or pitching. No team uses just one, of course, but David Schoenfield of ESPN recently put together one key stat for every team in the National League, and he chose and interesting number for the San Diego Padres: 3.03
That number isn’t as mysterious or obscure as it sounds, however. The Padres bullpen led the league with ERA of 3.03, and their ability to duplicate that level of performance will probably play a large part in the team’s level of success this year.
There are other bullpen numbers to go with it that are just as impressive, too. The Padres finished third in strikeout rate, first in lowest opponents batting average and first in lowest OPS, and in one of the advanced metrics, win probability added (WPA), it was one of the best bullpen numbers of the century.
Given that the rotation has already lost starter Dylan Cease in free agency along with Yu Darvish, who will undergo elbow surgery, it makes sense to focus on this number. But the Padres have also lost closer Robert Suarez in free agency as he signed with the Atlanta Braves, so matching the ERA will be a tough task.
There are other circumstances mitigating against the likelihood of it as well. With Cease gone and starter Michael King coming back from an injury, it also makes sense to assume that more innings will have to be made up on the back end. That means more wear and tear on the relievers, and more chances for bullpen games that blow up.
The Padres still have good arms in the bullpen who are capable of rising to the occasion. Reliever Mason Miller was a stud last year, and it’s possible that Miller could be elevated to the closer role, although that’s still to be determined. Another reliever, Jason Adam, will be returning from a quad injury, and relievers Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Moreton were also excellent out of the pen.
But San Diego probably needs to make more moves to make this happen. Rotation depth is an important factor that hasn’t been addressed yet, largely because the team is up for sale. There are still plenty of unknowns in the Padres situation, but the bullpen will have to be very good again to keep San Diego in contention.