With spring training scheduled to start next week, breakout prospects are everywhere. Jonathan Mayo, Jim Callis and Sam Dykstra of MLB.com identified one prospect from each team who could crack the Opening Day roster, and their choice for the San Diego Padres was Miguel Mendez.
It’s not a bad choice since the don’t really have any prospects that can do this, mostly because GM A.J. Preller keeps trading the really good ones for experienced players as soon as they prove they’re capable of making the jump to the majors.
But is it realistic to think Mendez can do this just because he’s the last man standing? And how much can he really add if he does make it, given that he only made six Double-A starts last year?
To break all this down, we took a look at Mendez’s scouting reports and performances to date to see if this forecast represents lots of preseason smoke or genuine fire.
As the writers state, Mendez did have a breakout campaign last year. He can hit the upper 90s with his fastball, and his mid-80s slider also plays as a plus pitch. Mendez is the #4 prospect in the Padres system, and his stats and numbers have been getting better as he works his way through San Diego’s minor league system, which is always a good sign.
Physically, Mendez checks in at 6’3” 175 pounds, so he’s got the long, lean build many scouts look for in a starter. He shows his athleticism on the mound, too, and there’s some explosiveness in his delivery. Mendez delivers from out of a 3/4 arm slot that gives him plenty of movement, although his changeup is mostly a show pitch at this point in his development. There is some potential there, as he’s generated a 37 percent swing rate despite the low usage.
Command has been an issue for Mendez, but there’s progress there as well. He lowered his walk rate from 14.9 percent to 11 percent according to Baseball America, so he’s definitely close to a promotion.
It shouldn’t happen at this point, though. There’s a good chance Mendez would get exposed given that he’s basically a two-pitch pitcher right now, and he needs more time in the minors at either Double A, Triple A or both. A midseason promotion isn’t out of the question if he shows the ability to consistently get outs against top competition, but Preller probably needs to be patient for once, even though it’s not really in his makeup.