Hall of Fame Voting seems to be on a lot of people’s minds these days, and San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado is a fascinating example of a player who could get there on the first ballot. Dennis Lin of The Athletic explored his chances in a recent piece, and he raised some intriguing points and questions about Machado’s chances to do this.
It’s easy to forget now that Machado is doing this as a result of a position shift. He started his career as an All-Star shortstop with the Baltimore Orioles, but the standards at the hot corner are very different.
Lin chose to focus on two key categories, listing the players who have had 350 home runs and 2000 hits by age 33, which is Machado’s current age. Machado makes the top 15 with his current combination of 369 homers and 2,069 hits, putting him just behind outfielder Vladimir Guerrero and legendary first baseman Lou Gehrig.
It’s interesting to note that there are no other third basemen ranked ahead of him, unless you count Alex Rodriguez, the list leader who played the first ten years of his career at short before moving over to the hot corner. Rodriguez isn’t really a comp, though, given that he breaks just about every rule imaginable for a HoF candidate, including the one that’s currently keeping him out of Cooperstown.
There are six players above Machado who got in on the first ballot—Hank Aaron, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray. Machado may not have some of the gaudy stats and awards that these players have, but he certainly has set the standard for his position, and he also has two Gold Glove awards.
Machado has another unique stat on his side that’s hard to match. According to Lin, he’s the only major leaguer to hit at least 27 home runs in the last ten seasons, which is especially impressive given how quickly analytics have been changing the standards by which the game is judged.
What may hurt Machado in this particular category is longevity. He still has eight more seasons with the Padres, at least in theory, and those last few years are probably going to be at least slightly brutal.
Machado will undoubtedly boost his chances by getting over 400 home runs, and he has an outside shot at 500. Getting 3,000 hits would almost certainly get him in on the first ballot, and while the odds of doing that are long, as Lin points out, Machado’s consistency makes it hard to bet against him.