The San Diego Padres need more from Manny Machado, but so far this season his slash line is unsightly.
Fading veterans are a popular subject around the San Diego Padres these days, and third baseman Manny Machado is high up on the subject list. He’s got a massive contract, but Machado emerged from the Padres series against the Los Angeles Dodgers hitting just .178, and those two things don’t go together well.
Former GM Jim Bowden of The Athletic did a piece about veterans who may or may not be fading, and Machado was on his list. Some of his thoughts are worthwhile, and this is a subject and a player with a lot of sides and facets, so let’s go there.
Machado has been a model of consistency until now, as Bowden notes. He hit at least 32 home runs from 2015, and his drop off was only to 27 a year if measured since that year, with the exception of the pandemic-shortened season. Machado has also driven in at least 85 runs in each of those seasons, so “annual production” could either be his middle name or a not-so-clever nickname.
This year, though, it’s ugly. The full slash line is .182/.277/.339, and his bat speed is down from 74.5 mph to 74.1. If you go back to 2023, that number becomes even more alarming at 76.7 mph just three years ago. That bat speed is still above average, but his attack angle has dropped, plus he’s hitting the ball to the opposite field more than he has in previous years.
His ability to hit to the opposite field is a testimony to Machado’s skill as a hitter. He’s always been a mistake hunter, especially with high fastballs that drift into the middle of the zone, and he’s still nailing some of those.
Bowden thinks Machado will rebound, and he’s probably right. Machado is simply too good a hitter to be stuck with that slash line, and at some point he’s likely to go on a tear. Machado still has seven homers already, so the power is obviously still there.
The question here may be what constitutes a rebound year for Machado. He may be at the point in his career where a slight drop is part of his basic timeline, which would mean a 20/80 season would be in play. That’s not all bad, as his current home run pace would put him closer to 30 than 20.
But there’s also that contract, which is onerous. Machado prides himself on providing top-level performance, but he may be at one of those pivot points where that becomes harder, especially when it comes to providing value as well.
