San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller is arguably the most elite reliever in the sport, but is he elite enough to hold opponents to a sub-.100 batting average?
Sure, the San Diego Padres gave up a lot when it acquired right-handed All-Star closer Mason Miller from the Athletics at the trade deadline last season, but it was well worth it.
The Padres needed to add another elite bullpen arm and were able to trade for the best one available in Miller. San Diego had to give up shortstop Leo De Vries (Major League Baseball No. 4 prospect), right-hander Braden Nett (Athletics No. 6), right-hander Henry Baez (Athletics No. 14 prospect) and right-hander Eduarniel Núñez (Athletics No. 22 prospect) to get him, but his impact is undeniable.
In 125 MLB appearances (six starts during his rookie season), Miller is 3-7 with a 2.81 ERA and 0.96 WHIP across 160 innings. He has 50 saves in 57 opportunities, an 87.7 percent clip, which puts him near Mariano Rivera territory in terms of save percentage (89.1). Miller has 246 strikeouts to just 65 walks through three seasons.
He only had three save opportunities with the Padres because right-hander Robert Suarez was locked into the closer role, but after he signed with the Atlanta Braves, Miller is now the guy.
The only way to get to Miller is by getting lucky and sending a pitch out of the ballpark, but when he’s throwing triple digits with a nasty wipeout slider, it’s easier said than done. batters hit just .161 off him and have an atrocious .521 OPS (.255 on-base,.266 slugging percentages)
A bulk of his stats are with the Athletics, but with San Diego, he has been absolutely electric. In 22 games (23.1 innings), Miller had a minuscule 0.77 ERA and 0.73 WHIP with 45 strikeouts to 10 walks. Batters hit just .096 (7-for-73) when he joined the Friars.
Considering opponents hit under .100 against him while on the Padres, is it possible for Miller to do that over a full season? ESPN’s David Schoenfield broke it down and gave his “real or not real” prediction.
“It's going to happen one of these years: A reliever with at least 50 innings will keep his batting average allowed under .100,” Schoenfield wrote Monday. “Kirby Yates came closest, allowing a .113 average in 2024. Aroldis Chapman held batters to a .132 average last season with Miller not far behind at .139. Batters were 28-for-202 off Miller; they would need to go 20-for-202 to get the average down to .099.”
Schoenfield asks the question, is allowing eight fewer hits in the same amount of innings possible? Personally, with how dominant he is, I think it’s certainly possible. Schoenfield doesn’t believe it’s going to happen, but he does think this prediction is one to keep an eye on.
“Given that Miller averaged 15.2 strikeouts per nine innings, he's not allowing many balls in play, that's for sure,” wrote Schoenfield. “I'm taking the over, since a sub-.100 average will require a mix of domination and luck on balls in play, but this will be one to monitor.”
I think it could happen, but it has never been done before. Only time will tell how masterful Miller will be in a full season as a Padre.