Talented bats mask a shaky pitching staff. Can the Padres' stars overcome rotation woes to make the postseason?
The San Diego Padres have entered and come out of the offseason in a tricky spot. There’s no doubt they have one of the most talented rosters in all of baseball, but it’s not quite enough to even consider them a lock for the postseason by the time fall rolls around.
San Diego’s lineup is strong with the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado leading the way. With great players around them, such as Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts, the Padres seem like they should be a lock for a postseason spot.
The Padres’ rotation, however, is cause for real concern for a club looking to have its third consecutive season with at least 90 wins. Because of their mix of talented stars and shaky pitching, the Padres have ranked at No. 15 in Bleacher Report’s pre-Opening Day power rankings.
Right-hander Dylan Cease walked in free agency on a massive deal with the reigning American League champion Toronto Blue Jays, and right-hander Yu Darvish won’t be pitching in 2026 as he recovers from surgery.
They still have a respectable top-end of the rotation in right-handers Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and Joe Musgrove, but it’s not exactly the rotation you’d want to put all your trust in. All three hurlers have proven their ability on the mound, but durability is the real concern in San Diego’s rotation.
King managed only 15 starts in 2025, where he had his worst season yet as a starter, although he still finished with a 3.44 ERA. With Cease’s departure, the Padres spent $75 million to bring King back this offseason. Musgrove is a similar story – great when on the mound, but concern surrounding how often he will be on the mound.
He hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since the 2024 postseason, and even then, he only made 17 and 19 starts in 2023 and 2024. He’s already heading into 2026 with health issues, as he’s likely to start the year on the injured list.
This could leave the Padres with an incredibly thin and unreliable rotation for chunks of the 2026 campaign, having a real negative impact on their postseason chase. Their star-studded lineup can only take them as far as the rotation will allow them. For the concerns coming out of San Diego just ahead of Opening Day, it makes sense as to why the Padres find themselves as a middle-of-the-pack team.
Several mid-tier teams from last offseason went out and made real improvements in the offseason, overtaking a Padres team that was largely passive. Now, they sit in the third tier according to Bleacher Report, and they’ll be lucky to grab a Wild Card spot by the time the regular season concludes.