Fueled by dramatic offensive surges from stars and an unlikely hero, San Diego’s revamped attack has catapulted the club from mid-season mediocrity into a powerhouse Wild Card contender.
The 2026 season has provided it all for the San Diego Padres. There have been the big wins, bigger losses, injuries, trades, an ownership change – you name it. Luckily for them, part of their story in 2026 has been their late-season push to secure a postseason spot after sitting middle of the pack in the National League for much of the season.
San Diego remains one game ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks for that final Wild Card position with a record of 72-62. Since the All-Star break, however, the Padres’ winning percentage has been significantly better – winning 24 of their last 38 games.
That .631 winning percentage is the second best in baseball during that span, and it was an absolute must in order to have a shot at October baseball. So, how have they been able to flip the switch in the second half?
While trade deadline additions of Robbie Ray and Casey Mize have legitimized the starting rotation a bit more, the real impact has come on the offensive end. In the first half of the season, San Diego was one of the worst teams in all of baseball at the plate. Multiple stars failed to produce at the plate, all at the same time. As recently as July 4, the Padres were held underwater by two games, largely due to the struggling offense.
Since the start of the second half, it’s been a different story. In the last 30 days, the Padres have a top-five OPS and on-base percentage while placing No. 7 in runs. It’s been a team effort, but there are three Padres who have stood out as the biggest second-half risers: Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and Luis Rengifo.
While Rengifo may not be on the same stardom level as Tatis Jr. and Merrill, there has been no bigger second-half riser in all of baseball than the infielder. His second-half 140 wRC+ is 89 points higher than it was before the break. He was so poor at the plate early in the year that the Milwaukee Brewers released him back in June. Just a couple of months later, he’s one of the biggest reasons why San Diego is on track for postseason baseball.
Merrill had just a .628 OPS at the conclusion of the first-half of the year, but his strong July has seen him return to his All-Star potential. His wRC+ has risen 50 points since the break, ranking as the eighth-best difference in baseball.
Tatis Jr.’s first-half of 2026 was headlined by his lack of power, not hitting his first home run until May 30. While he still graded out slightly above league average, his 185 wRC+ since the All-Star break has transformed the Padres’ lineup. El Niño has only gotten stronger with each passing month, and if he continues the trend, there’s no limit to how impactful he could be in the postseason.
As a whole, this Padres team looks like a completely different machine than just a couple of months ago. With pitching help arriving at the deadline and a newfound offensive rhythm, the Friars have positioned themselves inside of the playoff picture. There’s still a month left to play, but San Diego’s only gotten better with each month. Knock on wood, but I don’t see why September should be any different.
