The San Diego Padres didn't do much to upgrade its starting rotation besides acquire depth, so the team will be relying on right-hander Joe Musgrove to do well in his return from Tommy John surgery.
The 2026 offseason for the San Diego Padres wasn’t a typical one – general manager A.J. Preller was a lot more conservative than he usually is.
With the impending sale of the franchise, Preller wasn’t able to spend big or make big splashes like he typically does. Although Preller didn’t admit that was the reason for the timid offseason, it certainly played a role in it.
And it was a rough time for this situation to unfold, because the Padres lost a key contributor in its starting rotation at the beginning of free agency. Right-handed strikeout specialist Dylan Cease signed a massive seven-year, $210 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, leaving a gaping hole in a particularly thin rotation.
Cease was incredibly consistent and durable. He made 32 or more starts in five straight seasons (two with the Padres) and struck out at least 215 batters per year during that stretch, which is a tough resume to replace.
And that’s where former All-Star right-hander Joe Musgrove comes in. Musgrove, 33, underwent Tommy John surgery after leaving a playoff start against the Atlanta Braves due to right elbow tightness in October 2024.
It was the worst-case scenario for Musgrove, and he missed the entirety of the 2025 season. But he’s back with a vengeance in 2026 with no innings restriction, and he’s going to be an important piece to the Padres’ puzzle.
“San Diego devoted too much of its payroll to aging and untradable players, and the consequence of that is a pitching staff thin enough to have the Padres leaning on the right-hander returning from Tommy John surgery,” ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote Friday.
When healthy, Musgrove has been a stud during his tenure with San Diego. In 98 appearances (97 starts), the 2017 World Series champion is 37-24 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.11 WHIP across 559.1 innings pitched. He struck out 203 hitters and threw two complete game shutouts in 2021, establishing himself as a true threat to opposing lineups.
Unfortunately, he’s made less and less starts each season since joining the Padres that season. From 2021 to 2024, Musgrove’s start total has gone from 31 to 30 to 17 to 19. If he’s on the field, he’s an elite pitcher. But it has been a struggle to keep him on the field.
He made his first spring start on March 4 against Great Britain’s World Baseball Classic team, and while he pitched well, Musgrove’s arm isn’t responding how he had hoped. Musgrove pitched two innings and allowed one run on five hits and struck out three.
“It could be a blip on the radar,” wrote Passan. “It could also be something that causes cascading problems in an already fragile starting-pitching group.”
The soreness is natural, but this does put him at risk of being left off the Opening Day roster.