Joe Musgrove returns from Tommy John surgery, poised to be the Padres' linchpin as they navigate rotation uncertainty and chase postseason glory.
The starting staff for the San Diego Padres took much of the headlines for the club during the offseason, so it’s no surprise that one of the starters has been named as San Diego’s X-Factor heading into the 2026 campaign.
As it stands, right-handers Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and Randy Vasquez are all sure bets for San Diego's rotation, but the most important of the bunch will be right-hander Joe Musgrove, according to Bleacher Report’s recent article.
The reasoning for Musgrove being the club’s X-Factor is simple – he hasn't pitched in a year and a half. Requiring Tommy John surgery after tearing his UCL in a 2024 postseason contest, Murgove missed all of the 2025 campaign. Now, he returns to the mound hoping to provide the same level of production as he did before his injury.
His performance will be vital for the Padres, who lost right-hander Dylan Cease in free agency and right-hander Yu Darvish due to injury. There’s not much time for Musgrove to ease his way back on a major league mound – San Diego needs its ace back from the jump.
Pivetta took over as the ace in 2025 in Musgrove’s absence, but Musgrove has been the No. 1 guy in San Diego’s rotation since his arrival in 2021. He’s posted a 3.20 ERA in his time with the Padres that includes one All-Star selection. It’s nice to know that he has some backup with Pivetta and the re-signed King, but the Padres are still heavily reliant on Musgrove’s post-Tommy John arm.
Durability has been an issue for Musgrove over the past few years, pitching under 100 innings in both 2023 and 2024. He also had his worst year in a Padres uniform in 2024 with an ERA of 3.88. Still, he remained near the top of the league in walk rate and whiff percentage, making him a go-to option for San Diego.
He has proven himself in the regular season, but he’s been the clear ace in the postseason for San Diego, holding a 2.82 ERA in four postseason starts. Not only will the Padres need a dominant Musgrove back in the regular season, but their postseason chances, assuming they get there, are incredibly reliant on the 33-year-old.
Tommy John is an all-too-common surgery in baseball, but most pitchers have returned to, or at least near, their previous levels over the years, and there’s no reason to believe Musgrove would be an exception. After a rough offseason, Padres fans need to see Musgrove dominate on the mound once again in 2026.