The Padres have plenty of concerns going into the 2026 season, both around the diamond and on the mound. but Will Lockwood of FriarsOnBase.com tried to narrow it down to two. The first choice is obvious, but the second is more significant because it’s about a San Diego reliever who has to step up on a big way if teh Padres are going to contend.
First the obvious, though. (Hey, the object here is to keep you reading, right?) Shortstop Xander Bogaerts is already well into his decline, and we’re just three years into the 11-year, $280 million contract that is now the defining deal when it comes to the tendency of GM A.J. Preller’s tendency to overspend on flashy starts.
But Bogaerts isn’t a star anymore—not even close. His average has already dropped 22 points since 2023, as Lockwood points out, from .285 to .263, and his OPB has taken a hit as well. It's going to go down as one of the worst contracts in Padres history by the time it's all said and done.
The Padres somehow need to prop up Bogaert’s offense for at least a couple of years, but there’s really only one way this story ends. Two or three years from now, new Padres ownership is going to have to write Bogaerts a massive payout check to get him to go away. Perhaps with some deferred money, if the Padres are lucky.
The second worrisome player poses a more immediate concern. Receiver Jeremiah Estrada had a 3.44 ERA over the course of 73-1/3 innings, but according to Lockwood, he was the one member of the Padres bullpen to lose command when it mattered most.
To back up that statement, Lockwood used Estrada’s numbers against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and they really are shocking. Estrada has an 11.81 ERA against the Dodgers to go with an 0-3 record during his career, and in 2025 he posted an 18.47 ERA in 6-1/3 innings against LA.
Estrada obviously won’t be closing, but he will be stepping up to fill the whole left by closer Robert Suarez leaving in free agency to sign with the Atlanta Braves, unless Preller makes a significant move in the next six weeks that seems increasingly unlikely with each passing week due to the team’s upcoming sale. The one thing the Padres can’t afford is a weak link in their bullpen, so Estrada’s command will be something to keep a close eye on going forward.