The San Diego Padres need a power bat. The Los Angeles Dodgers have one they want to unload. Based on those two statements taken alone in a vacuum, a Padres trade for outfielder Teoscar Hernandez would make a lot of sense.
But it’s complicated, even with Hernandez’s numbers. He had a down year and he still hit 25 home runs for the Dodgers, but his average dropped and his strikeout rate increased.
According to Steve Adams of MLBtraderumors.com, however, Herandez is still above average with his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-it rate. He’s on the decline overall in each of these categories, though, plus Hernandez is clearly a defensive liability at this point.
But the Padres might not care about that. They have plenty of at-bats at DH that need to be filled, so Hernandez could be transitioned in that role if he shows the willingness and the ability to adapt to that role.
His contract is reasonable, too. Hernandez signed a three-year, $66 million deal with the Dodgers last winter, although $16 million of that money is deferred until 2031. That would make a lot of sense for the Padres, especially given that they’ve just been put up for sale.
The reason Hernandez is on the block is that the Dodgers simply don’t have a spot for him given his defensive decline. Their DH is multi positional superstar Shohei Ohtani, and that isn’t going to change any time soon. Unloading Hernandez would allow the Dodgers to pursue free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker, so that part works as well.
There’s another obvious issue here that we’ve been avoiding so far—the rivalry between the Padres and the Dodgers. That’s why these teams rarely make deals with one another, and when they do happen the usually revolve around role player and minor prospects.
There’s also the issue of what the Dodgers would want. Prospects, probably, but the Padres don’t exactly have a deep farm system after GM A.J. Preller’s blockbuster trades in recent years. The Padres are probably hoping for a hiatus in trading prospects so they can rebuild their depleted farm system so that prospects become available again.
It’s a complicated trade equation, but it’s definitely worth exploring. The Padres don’t have a lot of great options right now, and Hernandez could be a find for them if they can find a way to pull off a deal, however unlikely.