Could the Philadelphia Phillies Have Hope for Trea Turner?

Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner just endured one of the most nightmarish seasons imaginable, slashing .242/.297/.378 while posting minus-17 defensive runs saved in the field.

Relative to Turner's $300 million contract, it was one of the worst seasons in baseball, and Turner is also under wraps through 2033.

So there is a chance that the Phillies are going to be stuck with this sort of production — if not worse — for the next seven years. After all, Turner is 33 years old, so a steep decline may have already begun.

But is there hope that Turner can rebound in 2027?

As crazy as it sounds, Turner is one year removed from winning a batting title, as he hit .304 in 2025. He even finished fifth in NL MVP voting that season.

And in 2024, Turner slashed .295/.338/.469 with 21 home runs and 62 RBI en route to an All-Star appearance.

Is it possible that the former first-round pick fell off that quickly?

Well, sure; anything is possible, and we have seen dramatic dropoffs in baseball before. But perhaps this was a bit extreme for Turner.

First of all, Turner's BABIP was .284 in 2026, well below his lifetime mark of .333. League average is around .290, so maybe Turner's luck finally caught up with him, but it's also possible something was just amiss this year.

Turner's bat speed (71.6) also didn't dip this year. Actually, it increased from last season, and his fast-swing percentage (19.1 percent) was easily his highest since the stat starting being tracked in 2024.

His barrel rate? Six percent, a tad below his career average of 6.8 percent, but above the 5.8 percent he posted in 2025.

And here's where it really gets interesting: 34.3 percent of the time Turner made contact, it was a hard-hit ball ... above his lifetime median of 33.3 percent.

Of course, Turner's expected batting average was the same as his actual batting average (.242), and his expected slugging (.363) was actually lower than his official number. So was his expected wOBA (.293 compared to .298).

Turner has always outperformed his peripherals, so maybe 2026 really was just a case of the chickens coming home to roost. Or perhaps Turner got the short end of the stick.

I am in no way, shape or form saying that Turner will bounce back next spring. I'm just laying out the possibility that he may have gotten a bit unlucky relative to his career norms this season.

Now, will that help his horrendous defense? No, but if he can at least produce at the plate, it would make his shoddy glove more palatable.

Maybe, just maybe, Turner will rebound in 2027 ... or he could just be cooked.