The Philadelphia Phillies made a significant move when they locked up left-handed starter Jesus Luzardo, but the timing of the deal may have had just as much to do with the future of baseball’s landscape as it did with Luzardo’s performance on the mound.
According to Cole Weintraub, the looming expiration of MLB’s current CBA played a major role in Philadelphia's decision to act now rather than wait another year. The current CBA runs through the 2026 season, and uncertainty surrounding the next negotiation could significantly reshape the free-agent market.
“The collective bargaining agreement is the backdrop to everything here,” Weintraub wrote.
If negotiations between the league and the players’ union turn as poorly as some think they could, there’s always the possibility of no season in 2027. A lockout or strike could delay the start of the next MLB season and potentially push the next full campaign to 2028.
For Luzardo, a delay could impact his value on the open market.
“The current agreement expires after 2026, and a work stoppage — lockout, strike, or otherwise — would push the next season to 2028,” Weintraub wrote. “If that happens, Luzardo would be knocking on 30 when the next season began.”
That age is significant in the free-agent market. Many starting pitchers, particularly left-handers, hit free agency around that point in their careers, which often gives them a chance to get paid.
“That’s exactly the age most free-agent starting pitchers, especially left-handers, hit the open market,” Weintraub noted. “The window to sign him at a relative discount was now, not next winter.”
“If a salary cap is implemented and the Phillies are up against it, they would not have been as strong a suitor,” Weintraub wrote. “Locking him up now eliminated that risk.”
There’s also the possibility that the next CBA brings in new financial structures, such as a salary cap or salary floor. If it were implemented, it could change how aggressively teams like Philadelphia pursue expensive players.
Luzardo would’ve gotten paid, no matter what, but the number might’ve looked different.
“There would have been significant competition for Luzardo regardless,” Weintraub wrote.