The Philadelphia Phillies have received a rather concerning outlook on this top prospect.
The Philadelphia Phillies are certainly expecting a couple of their top prospects to be a big part of the team in 2026.
Justin Crawford will be the Phillies' starting center fielder, and as of right now, Andrew Painter could be a back-end-of-the-rotation starter with Ranger Suarez signing with the Boston Red Sox and Zack Wheeler recovering from thoracic outlet syndrome.
Painter has actually been Philadelphia's top-ranked prospect by MLB.com each of the preceding three years, but Keith Law of The Athletic views things a bit differently.
Law actually feels that shortstop Aidan Miller is the Phillies' No. 1 farmhand heading into 2026, and while he has Painter ranked second, he seems to have some trepidation about the right-hander following a rough 2025 campaign.
"His ceiling hasn’t really changed from where it was pre-TJ, but his probabilities have shifted, where he might need more time to hit that No. 1 ceiling, or is slightly less likely to get there at all," Law wrote.
Philadelphia Phillies hat. Credit: Kim Klement-Imagn Images.Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2023 and missed all of 2023 and 2024 (although he did pitch in the 2024 Fall League) as a result.
He pitched a full season in 2025, though, going 5-8 with a 5.26 ERA between Single-A and Triple-A (Painter didn't pitch in Double-A last season). The 6-foot-7 hurler allowed 129 hits while registering 123 strikeouts over 118 innings of work.
The strikeouts were decent, but Painter's 1.492 WHIP was certainly alarming. Perhaps it was just a blip on the radar for the 22-year-old, who surely needs some more time to adjust and adapt after such a major surgery.
That being said, Painter looked really good in the Fall League back in 2024, when he logged a 2.30 ERA while surrendering just 10 hits and recording 18 punchouts across 15.2 frames. But that was obviously a very small sample size.
Philadelphia remains high on Painter, and deservedly so. He is a former first-round pick who was tremendous prior to his surgery. During his first full season in Philly's organization in 2022, for example, he managed a 6.20 K/BB ratio in 103.2 innings.
But there is no question that there are some concerns surrounding the Pompano Beach, Fl. native heading into 2026.
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