Is Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber about to begin a steep decline?
On the surface, Kyle Schwarber's 2026 numbers for the Philadelphia Phillies look great.
Schwarber slashed .232/.354/.503 with 45 home runs and 97 RBI over 701 plate appearances this season. It marked the fourth time in five years he has smashed 45 homers or more, and he has led the National League in that category three times during that span.
But a deeper look beneath the surface exposes some concerns.
Yes, Schwarber put up fantastic numbers once again this season, but we cannot ignore how bunched up some of those numbers were.
Twenty-two of Schwarber's homers came between March and May. Thirty of them came through June. He poste OPSes of .976, .896 and .975 over the first three months of the campaign. He then failed to register a single month on an .800 OPS from then on.
In fact, Schwarber batted just .172 with a .710 OPS during the final month of the season.
It's worth noting that the 33-year-old sustained a back injury in late June, one that appeared to be bothering him the rest of the way. But strangely enough, we really didn't hear about it down the stretch.
So was it the back that was a problem for Schwarber? Or it it simply that the four-time All-Star is declining?
I suppose it could be a bit of both, which doesn't exactly paint a pretty picture for a Phillies squad that handed the lefty slugger a five-year, $150 million contract last offseason.
When he is right, Schwarber is one of the game's most dangerous hitters. Sure, he's a lifetime .231 hitter, and yes, he'll strike out a ton. But his prodigious power and ability to get on base makes him lethal.
But how much longer will Schwarber continue to be elite in that area?
Remember: Schwarber is strictly a DH. He spent brief time at first base in 2026, but he is an awful defender. Philadelphia wants to do whatever it can to keep him out of the field.
So if his bat declines, the Phillies will have a pretty significant problem on their hands.
That's why entertaining a Schwarber trade this winter might not be the worst idea, but then, Schwarber can exercise his 10-and-5 rights to veto any deal. That obviously puts Dave Dombrowski in a tough position.
Maybe the nagging back injury was the primary problem for Schwarber, and perhaps all he needs is some rest this offseason to get back to normal. But if he suddenly becomes a sub-.800 OPS hitter like he was the last several months, trouble will ensue.
