Aaron Nola is setting himself up to have a big season with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2026.
The Philadelphia Phillies starting rotation has the potential to be one of the best in Major League Baseball this season, but it also comes with several caveats, one of them being whether or not Aaron Nola can have a bounce-back 2026 season.
The veteran starter had a rough 2025 campaign, logging a career-high 6.01 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. That said, this was also over 94.1 innings pitched, the fewest of his career since his rookie season (excluding the shortened 2020 season).
Nola was even on the record earlier this spring, saying he believes his health could be a major factor in the upcoming season.
The good news for the Phillies and Nola is that he’s already showing some signs that a bounce-back season could be in store for the 32-year-old pitcher.
Starting off simple, the traditional counting stats have been on Nola’s side so far this spring.
He’s only made one start with Philadelphia before leaving for the World Baseball Classic, but in that outing, Nola struck out two batters in 2.0 innings of work.
Nola’s stuff got even better as he continued to pitch in the WBC. Team Italy became the Cinderella story of the tournament, reaching the semi-final before being eliminated by Team Venezuela, and Nola played a key role in that run.
Mar 4, 2026; Clearwater, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) throws a pitch during the first inning against Team Canada at BayCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn ImagesWhen it was all said and done, Nola had pitched nine innings, only giving up one earned run, issuing two walks, and striking out eight batters. That included facing some big-league-level hitters such as Jarren Duran, Randy Arozarena, Ronald Acuna Jr., Maikel Garcia, Luis Arraez, and Eugenio Suarez, and the list goes on.
Digging a little deeper into Nola’s spring metrics, there’s something else that stands out that should have the Phillies extremely encouraged about the pitcher’s season ahead: Nola’s uptick in velocity.
Nola’s fastball velocity has never been a huge strength, but it was especially noticeable in 2025 amid his other struggles. Last season, his average fastball velo was just 91.4 mph, ranking in the 12th percentile.
In Nola’s start against Team Mexico, he topped out at 94.5 mph, which was slightly harder than his max velocity of 94.1 mph against Team Venezuela.
That increase with the speed of Nola’s fastball could do so much for the rest of his arsenal and make his knuckle curve that much more difficult for hitters to pick up.
Yes, it’s early, and the old saying of “It’s only March,” is a very fair counterargument to all of this, but it’s hard to ignore how sharp Nola has looked on the mound, and that’s a very encouraging sign for the Phillies and their rotation.
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