Trea Turner is coming off an incredible season with the Philadelphia Phillies, but can he repeat it?
The Philadelphia Phillies are heavily relying on their star core to continue producing at a high level during the 2026 season, especially given the many question marks already in the lineup. Unfortunately, one member of that core is being predicted to take a step back next season.
FanGraphs’ famous ZiPS projection model is not as high on Trea Turner heading into 2026, compared to the number he put up a season ago.
The veteran shortstop had an incredible year at the plate, recording a slash line of .304/.355/.457, including 53 extra base hits. Turner’s batting average even led the National League. All of that came out to a 121 OPS+, which is tied for his highest as a member of the Phillies, and his best since the 2022 season.
However, ZiPS predicts Turner will experience some regression in 2026. The model is projecting Turner to finish next season with .285/.337/.443 slash line, which would come out to a 112 OPS+.
Jun 27, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) hits a home run against the Atlanta Braves in the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn ImagesEven Dan Szymbrowski was a little shocked by these totals.
“There are worries lurking on the horizon, however. Trea Turner had what was certainly his best season in Philadelphia, but he’s entering his mid-30s, a very dangerous time for a middle infielder. I was actually surprised to see the drop-off in the ZiPS projection for Turner, but noticed that Steamer was basically projecting the same thing,” wrote the analyst.
There are a couple of key takeaways from the numbers the computer is calculating.
First, it’s incredibly hard for a player to have a repeat season of a batting average over .300. Even Turner, who’s known as a contact hitter, hasn’t done this since back in his days with the Washington Nationals. Some regression on that front wouldn’t be shocking and is probably expected.
The other is that, even with the drop in batting average, Turner’s on-base percentage remains strong, which is really what the Phillies need, assuming he’ll be hitting in one of the top three spots in the lineup. Turner had a walk rate of 6.7 percent a season ago, and the model predicts it will be about the same next year.
ZiPS is definitely projecting for Turner to take a step back in 2026, but even if he records the model’s projected numbers, he’d still be a key piece to Philadelphia’s success.
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