Philadelphia Phillies' Aaron Nola had a rough season, but he has the potential for a bounce-back year in 2026.
Aaron Nola has been one of the top pitchers in MLB for over a decade, but the Philadelphia Phillies’ starter took a massive step back during the 2026 season. He finished with a career-high ERA of 6.01 and a 1.35 WHIP, two uncharacteristic stats for a pitcher known for his consistency.
Even though Nola had a rough season statistically, there are a couple of signs that point to him having a bounce-back year in 2026.
Nola’s Command Was Still Strong
Sometimes when pitchers struggle, it’s because they lose their command or ability to throw strikes. That wasn’t the case for Nola.
Even though Nola gave up more hits and home runs than he typically does, Nola’s command was still strong, which is a key indicator that the 32-year-old still has a few solid seasons ahead of him.
Nola’s thrown strike rate of 65 percent, which helped him log a walk rate of just 6.9 percent, which ranked in the 69th percentile compared to the rest of MLB. The veteran pitcher can clearly still throw his stuff in the zone; now it’s about slightly reworking his mix to generate more outs.
Because of having a high strike rate, Nola still had solid strikeout numbers, too. He struck out 24 percent of the batters he faced with a chase-rate of 33.5 percent.
As long as Nola continues to register similar strike and chase numbers, he should be in a position for a decent amount of success.
Apr 11, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (27) walks off the field after the fifth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn ImagesNola’s Knuckle Curve Remains A Dangerous Pitch
Nola has had such a successful career in large part do to his dangerous knuckle curve, and that remained the case in 2025 despite some discouraging overall numbers.
The pitch itself had an expected opponent batting average of .243 and a putaway rate of 25.4 percent. Plus, the pitch had a vertical drop of 55.4 inches (with gravity) and a horizontal break of 14.8 inches, which was about two inches better than comparable pitches.
As long as Nola continues to have a pitch that he can count on at the end of an at-bat or keep a batter on their toes, he should still be able to sequence off it nicely and get outs.
Will Nola go back to being a Cy Young candidate in 2026? Maybe not. But between his strong command and knuckle curve playing well, the Phillies starter should at least see some improvement and be a solid presence in Philadelphia’s rotation.