Brandon Lowe Has Risks, but Pirates Should Avoid Them in Free Agency

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I truly believe that there's a strong argument to be made that second baseman Brandon Lowe is among the best free agents available this offseason, and I'd even go as far as to say that he's the best offensive player in this free agency class. For the Pittsburgh Pirates, there's obviously a lot of hope that Lowe is going to return, and there are a couple of different ways that it could happen. 

By extending him a qualifying offer, Pittsburgh is in a position where it could bring him back on a one-year deal. 

For the ownership and front office, that would obviously be the best-case scenario, as he'd be much cheaper and they wouldn't have to worry about him aging poorly if he were to get a three- or four-year deal like some expect.

But while I absolutely love Lowe as a player, some don't feel the same way. That includes one Bleacher Report analyst who recently suggested that Lowe might be one of the most overrated players on the free agency market. 

While I disagree with what he had to say in the grand scheme of things, some of his points are more than fair in regard to the underlying numbers.

“Otherwise, two of this three 30-homer seasons have come in the last two years. He had his best year ever for pulling the ball in the air, which is still another revolution that passes the smell test. The bad stuff concerns what happened when Lowe didn't make contact. His 28.8 K% marked his highest strikeout rate since 2019, and it might undersell how much he swung and missed. 

“He had a 66.9 contact percentage, third-lowest among qualified hitters. That would be easy to forgive if Lowe had good plate discipline, but his 33.6 chase percentage was a career high and in the 27th percentile to boot,” Zachary D. Rymer of Bleacher Report wrote.

The K% is definitely a concern, especially as Lowe ages and he loses some power. However, this is also a guy who has proven to us that he's not necessarily going to slow down offensively when it comes to his power production. 

Lowe has had his best two seasons in the power department over the past two years now, and while that can change in the blink of an eye, obviously, it doesn't look like it's going to. I'm also of the belief that even if Lowe does start to struggle after the first year of his potential contract in Pittsburgh, if it were to land him on a multi-year deal, and the Pirates make the postseason, there shouldn't be any worries about what happens after. 

That might not be the right way to look at things, but the Pirates simply need to make the playoffs right now, and I'm willing to do whatever it takes to ensure that happens.