Brandon Lowe's Predicted Contract Puts Pirates in Good Spot to Re-Sign Him

The Pittsburgh Pirates decided to offer Brandon Lowe a qualifying offer, something I just can't get behind. I understand Lowe could leave for nothing, and the Pirates want to ensure they get a draft pick in return, but offering him a qualifying offer should be seen as something of a slap in the face. 

I believe Lowe and everyone around him understand this is his best chance to get paid throughout his career, and the Pirates coming in with an unserious offer like that to start things just isn't the best move. 

Ultimately, there are other factors as to why Pittsburgh did this, so I can at least understand that. In regard to what Lowe's future looks like, there seems to be an expectation that he's not taking that qualifying offer. 

We know anything is possible in Major League Baseball, specifically with the expected lockout, but the reality is that Lowe is going to get paid handsomely, and there's a price to pay for that. MLB Trade Rumors recently did its free agency predictions as well as some contracts, predicting that Lowe could get a three-year, $69 million deal.

“The knocks against Lowe are fairly obvious. He strikes out too much (28.8%), walks at a good-not-great rate (9.5%) and has notable platoon splits both in his career and in 2026. He’s also 32 years old, and if he’d been born a week earlier than his July 6 birthday, next year would be considered his “age-33” season rather than his age-32 campaign. The list of 32-year-old bats to land more than three years in free agency is tiny and generally reserved for a higher echelon of player: Alex Bregman, Kyle Schwarber, Freddie Freeman and Starling Marte are the only position players to do so in the past five years. The fact that Lowe received a qualifying offer from the Pirates won’t help his cause, but he should still reject it and cash in on a hearty multi-year contract.

“Flaws notwithstanding, Lowe is one of the most enticing bats — not just second basemen — on the offseason market,” MLB Trade Rumors wrote.

Paying Lowe more than $20 million per season might not be something the Pirates are interested in doing, but as I've said before, it feels more than fair to say that he deserves that. 

If he wasn't 32 years old, we'd be looking at a guy who would easily get more than $100 million. I still don't even think it's crazy to say that Lowe could end up getting $100 million. The only question the Pirates are truly going to have to answer here is whether they want to take the risk of paying a guy who could be 35 at the end of this contract.

If that's not what they want to do, there's a very good chance that Lowe isn't going to be on the roster next season, and that's very disappointing.