Paul Skenes Arbitration is Underrated Offseason Storyline For Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are entering a massive offseason following a successful 2026 season that saw them finish 82-80.

Pittsburgh is now looking toward going after a playoff spot next season, but there are many questions to answer this winter. One of the bigger ones has to do with ace Paul Skenes, who put together a shaky third season in the big leagues.

After two dominant years, Skenes posted a 3.82 ERA over 32 starts for Pittsburgh. The right-hander now enters into his first year of eligibility in arbitration, setting up a big storyline for the Pirates' offseason.

Entering what should be a major offseason for the Pirates, analyst John Perrotto of Pittsburgh Baseball Now believes that this winter could tell a lot about the future of Skenes with the franchise. With Skenes being projected to make $7.2 million this season in arbitration, how the Pirates handle the process could be interesting.

The $7.2 million would be a record for a pitcher who is eligible for arbitration for the first time, but it shows where Skenes is. Salaries in arbitration are based on players with similar service time, but the Pirates star isn't on the same level as other pitchers.

Through his first three years in the majors, Skenes has won a Cy Young Award and a Rookie of the Year Award, which isn't something most players can say. Skenes stands alone in this regard, and the entire upcoming arbitration process could reflect his future.

There has been a lot of talk about whether Skenes will be in Pittsburgh for the long term, and if the Pirates feel like he won't be, they may go to battle over his salary. But if the Pirates believe that Skenes will be sticking around, the front office could try to make him as comfortable as possible.

No matter what happens with Skenes this winter, he is likely to be with the Pirates for next season as the team looks to break the long playoff drought. But Skenes will be a free agent after the 2029 season, and the Pirates have to brace themselves in case he is going to leave or asks out.

If the Pirates get a hint that Skenes won't sign long-term, or the team isn't willing to pay him what it takes, moving him sooner rather than later will be crucial. With Skenes on a multi-year contract, teams will be more open to paying more premieum prices.

But Pittsburgh also needs Skenes to help them get back to the playoffs, making this one of the more interesting situations across baseball. 2027 will be huge for the Pirates, and if they can't get into the playoffs, Skenes's fate could be sealed.