Paul Skenes isn't throwing as hard this year, but is the Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher worried about it?
The story for Paul Skenes at the midway point of the season hasn’t necessarily been about his All-Star caliber pitching or the Pittsburgh Pirates finally being in the playoff hunt.
Instead, the narrative around the superstar pitcher has been his notable drop in velocity.
Skenes' average fastball velocity has been steadily declining since his MLB debut in 2024. In 2026, Skenes is averaging 96.9 mph on his heater; still an elite level, but not what everyone has grown accustomed to seeing.
Even though the velocity may objectively be down for Skenes' standards, it's not something he's overly concerned about at this point.
“I think it’s funny [reporters] only ask [about velocity] when I don’t have a good outing. In those outings, I don’t think I really got damaged on my four-seamer,” Skenes said (quote via MLB.com).
There is some truth to this. Overall, Skenes' fastball has a hard-hit rate of 45.2 percent; in 2025, it was 53.3 percent, and in 2024, it was 48.7 percent.
The pitches hitters are doing their most damage against Skenes, with his splitter and slider.
Jul 12, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn ImagesThat said, a dip in velocity could also be an indicator of something else that is related to a pitcher's delivery or how they're feeling on the mound.
Skenes still insists this isn't the case for him.
“I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well,” Skenes continued.
“I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped. It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy. I’m feeling good and still pitching at a high level.”
Whether it is a dip in velocity or other pitches in Skenes' arsenal, there's no denying that the Pirates pitcher hasn't looked his typical self through the first half of the season, in terms of his stats.
Skenes has a 3.57 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, both of which are still elite numbers compared to the rest of the big-league pitchers. In his three starts heading into the All-Star Break, Skenes allowed 11 earned runs over 15.1 innings (6.46 ERA).
Right now, Skenes doesn't seem concerned about his velocity, and neither does Ben Cherrington, based on an interview last month.
Still, this will certainly be something to monitor after the All-Star break, especially if the stats don't get back to where they've been in years past.
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