Pirates Should Avoid Making $64M Deal Unless They Trade One Player

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates go out and make a blockbuster free-agent signing to bring in an above-average starting pitcher? 

I have my doubts about that, and I also wonder if it even makes sense to do so. 

Ultimately, the Pirates have too many needs on both sides of the baseball to go out and spend a ton of money on a starting pitcher. In a perfect world, they would bring back Brandon Lowe, sign a couple of relievers, and also bring in a decent starter. However, the reality is that Pittsburgh likely won't do that, at least based on history. 

Right now, the organization has to decide what it wants to do with Lowe, and it also has to figure out how to improve the bullpen. 

The starting rotation could be very good if many of these young guys keep doing what we all know they can. 

As for other names the Pirates could pursue, Trevor Rogers, the left-hander who threw for the Baltimore Orioles last season, was recently floated as an option. 

The Athletic predicted he'd sign a three-year, $64 million deal, noting the Pirates could be a fit.

“Rogers was finally healthy for a full season, making 30 starts for the Orioles. He had a 4.03 ERA in 169 2/3 innings with 157 strikeouts. The prior year, he had a 1.81 ERA over 18 starts and 109 2/3 innings. He should be ready for 180 to 200 innings next year. He has an excellent fastball and good command, though his changeup gave him trouble all season. After a rough April and May, Rogers had ERAs under 3.00 in every month except for August.

“Rogers has struggled with injuries during his career, but if teams believe he is healthy, he’s one of the better non-Skubal left-handed starters available this winter,” Jim Bowden wrote.

Rogers has sneakily been one of the most difficult players in baseball to evaluate as a starting pitcher. He struggled elsewhere, mainly in 2024, when the Miami Marlins traded him to the Orioles at the deadline and optioned him. 

He was decent, posting a 4.03 ERA.

He's been better at other stages of his career, but the reality is he's about a 4.00 ERA guy, and that's probably not worth $64 million over a three-year deal.

There's one scenario in which it could make sense, and it's if the Pirates end up trading Mitch Keller.