Alex Bregman Reportedly Wants To Finish Career With Boston Red Sox

I’ve given the Jim Bowden preamble before, but I feel like it’s important that I do this every single time I run with anything he writes. It might not be completely fair to Bowden, but it wouldn’t be completely fair to this audience if I didn’t, either.

More than any time in the history of modern media, it’s vital to consider your source.

So when I saw The Athletic published its top 10 Scott Boras-repped free agents ahead of the Winter Meetings, I immediately jumped to the byline to see who had worked on the piece.

Ken Rosenthal? Andy McCullough? Evan Drellich?

Nope.

Jim Bowden.

…OK, so we’re taking this whole thing with a grain of salt.

For those unfamiliar, here’s Bowden’s bio on his author page on The Athletic’s website:

“Jim Bowden, a national writer for The Athletic MLB, was formerly the Sr. VP and general manager for the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals for a combined 16 years, including being named the 1999 MLB Executive of the Year by Baseball America. He is the lead MLB Analyst and Insider for CBS Sports-HQ and a regular talk-show host on SiriusXM for the MLB Network and Fantasy channels. Follow him on twitter: @JimBowdenGM.”

Notice a key title missing from Bowden’s bio:

Reporter.

Bowden is known throughout the industry as someone who plays a little fast-and-loose when it comes to rumors and hearsay. I’m not telling you to discount everything he says at all times, but I am asking you to take everything he says with some strain of skepticism. 

With that said, this blurb from his column on Wednesday perked my ears:

“2. Alex Bregman, 3B

“Bregman, 31, opted out of his contract with the Red Sox earlier this offseason because he would like a long-term deal to finish his career with one team. He’d love that team to be Boston, but it remains to be seen whether the Red Sox are willing to offer him the kind of long-term deal he’s seeking. Bregman was important to the Red Sox last year not just because of what he did on the field, but because of his leadership qualities and willingness to help develop their young players at the major-league level.

“However, there are several contending teams that Bregman would be a difference-maker for if he signs with any of them, including the Tigers, Phillies, Mariners, Yankees, Mets and Blue Jays, as well as non-contending teams like the Angels and Pirates. His free agency is going to be must-watch during the Winter Meetings.”

Here at Roundtable, we’ve had season tickets to all things Bregman this offseason. From the reports that he would be opting out, to the Silver Slugger nomination, to the actual official opt-out of the final two years of his deal (leaving $80 million on the table), we’ve covered it all.

This latest piece from Bowden puts into focus what Bregman is truly seeking this offseason, which is a place to call home the remainder of his baseball career. He’s mentioned on numerous occasions how much he loves playing in Boston, and this blurb from Bowden only backs that up even further.

But if Boston grants Bregman his wish, does that mean they’d be done spending at an elite level for the remainder of the offseason?

MassLive’s Sean McAdam reported Sunday that ownership is concerned about exceeding the $244 million Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2026, as this could trigger financial penalties and other operational restrictions.

According to the report, team officials believe crossing that line would result in a “moderate financial loss.” Because MLB teams do not share their financial records, it’s impossible to verify whether that claim reflects actual revenue projections or an internal preference for maintaining a certain level of spending discipline.

Anyone with a brain can tell you that it’s almost certainly the latter.

What can be evaluated, however, is where the Red Sox currently stand.

MLB Trade Rumors’ Nick Deeds projects Boston’s luxury-tax payroll to be around $223 million. That leaves them roughly $22 million shy of the first tax tier - and approximately $41 million beneath the second tier.

As we wrote earlier this offseason, a player like Matt Chapman with the Athletics is the type of contract that should be used as a comparison for the kind of deal Bregman would be looking for with Boras as his agent: six years, $151 million.

With Bowden’s piece on Wednesday saying Bregman is looking for a contract that will bring him to the end of his career, let’s adjust that to be an eight-year deal worth $201.33 million.

That would put Bregman’s AAV at approximately $25.17 million.

If we’re going by what McAdam reported on Sunday, that type of deal would mean the Red Sox are done spending in a real way this offseason.

That means no Pete Alonso, no Kyle Schwarber, no unnamed starting pitcher that this rotation is still in need of.

If they want Bregman back, and they’re going to continue having a mid-market mentality, then Bregman will be the end of the offseason shopping spree.

In the midst of early hot stove season moves, the Red Sox recently dropped to having the eighth-best odds to win the World Series, per OddsTrader.

If their offseason ends with only a re-signing of Bregman to go along with the trade for Sonny Gray, you have to wonder if those odds drop even further.

Tom Carroll is a contributor for Roundtable, with boots-on-the-ground coverage of all things Boston sports. He's a senior digital content producer for WEEI.com, and a native of Lincoln, RI.