With the 2026 Major League Baseball Draft less than two months away, mock draft season is in full swing. In MLB Pipeline's latest, they have the Boston Red Sox selecting Massachusetts native Brody Bumila with the No. 20 pick in the first round. 

Bumila is a left-handed starter from Raynham, Mass. He is currently a senior at Bishop Feehan High School in North Attleboro and is committed to the University of Texas. Bumila stands 6-foot-9 and 225 pounds and owns a massive fastball that has reached 100 mph, along with a change-up and slider that, according to MLB Pipeline, both project as above-average offerings. He also features great extension and a low-angle release point. The 18-year-old Bumila has dominated the Massachusetts high school baseball circuit, including a 20-strikeout no-hitter in early May.

MLB Pipeline's Jonathan Mayo has the Red Sox selecting Bumila with their first-round pick, saying, "Leaning into the 'don’t miss the guy in your own backyard' idea here. Bumila has been racing up boards thanks to high-octane and unhittable heat from a 6-foot-9 frame." 

With that low-angle release point, massive fastball and big frame, he is a prime candidate for the Red Sox pitching lab.

While the thought of drafting a local prospect with as much upside as Bumila is tantalizing, there is a ton of risk associated with high school arms. First of all, at just 18 years old, there is so much development still needed before reaching the big leagues, and with it, so much that could go wrong along the way. Secondly, Bumila is committed to the Texas, meaning he is not guaranteed to sign with the team that drafts him. Often, high school draftees use their commitment as leverage in negotiations with the teams that draft them, seeking to make above the slot value of the pick.

The Red Sox are in a difficult spot when it comes to their allotted bonus pool space. Boston has just $8,219,200 to sign all of their draftees, which is the eighth-lowest in baseball. The slot value of the No. 20 pick is $4,373,900, so if Bumila does want more than slot value, Boston will be looking at well over half their allotted money. It is worth noting that if a player is selected in the first three rounds of the draft and doesn't sign, the team receives a compensatory pick that is one slot lower than the pick they used on the selection.

It's an interesting calculus for Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow and the rest of the Red Sox front office to make. While Bumila seems like the perfect fit for the Red Sox's pitching development system, is it worth it to use your first-round pick on a player who is not guaranteed to sign, and if they do, it might require more than 50 percent of your bonus pool space? 

The 2026 MLB Draft gets underway on July 11 in Philadelphia as a part of MLB All-Star Weekend. 

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